宏观调控下的房地产业风险实证分析
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Empirical Analysis on the Risk in Real Estate Industry under Macro Control
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    摘要:

    在对宏观调控政策及其对房地产业的影响进行定性分析的基础上,文章利用CAPM模型估计上市房地产公司的系统风险(β系数),通过对不同政策时点前后系数的稳定性进行零假设检验,验证宏观调控对房地产业风险的影响。实证结果表明: 在宏观调控过程中,绝大多数公司的系数波动是显著的,即对房地产系统风险产生了影响,但不同类型的房地产企业对风险的反映有所不同,宏观政策将促成房地产业的大洗牌,并朝着调控预期的目标发展。

    Abstract:

    Based on some qualitative analysis of the macroeconomic control policies on real estate industry, this paper estimates the market risk coefficient (β) for listed companies in real estate industry,then tests the stability before and after several policy announcements, to explore the effects of macroeconomic control on real estate industry risks. The empirical results prove that most companies fluctuated significantly during the macroeconomic control process. That is, macroeconomic control had affected the market risk of real estate industry, but in different degrees. These macroeconomic controls just act as what they were expected.

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晏国菀,朱丹.宏观调控下的房地产业风险实证分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2010,16(2):27-32.

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  • 收稿日期:2009-12-17
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