资本管制下的国际冲击传导和经济稳定
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福建省高等学校新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(JA10177S);国家社会科学基金项目“居民资产负债管理行为特征与影响机制研究”(14BJY014)


Shocks Transmission and Economic Stability with Capital Controls
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    摘要:

    文章建立了一个能反映中国经济特征的开放经济DSGE模型,研究资本管制下,中国经济对外汇市场和国际贸易冲击的响应特征,以及放松管制对经济稳定的影响。研究发现:(1)中国当前资本管制的效果与完全管制的情形基本一样。净出口会对利率平价形成较大贴水,且外汇市场冲击的持续性较低。(2)外汇市场冲击主要通过国际风险分担机制影响国内消费和净出口,资本管制会抑制风险分担机制的发挥。资本管制使贸易冲击被迅速抑制,但会对其他国内经济变量产生滞后影响。(3)资本完全流动确实会显著提高经济波动,但在当前资本严格管制下,适度放松管制不会影响经济稳定,在一定程度上还有利于产出、消费和利率的稳定。

    Abstract:

    This paper investigates the response feature of the domestic economic to shocks of international financial market and international trade with capital controls, and the influence of deregulation on economic stability within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model for China’s economy. We find that: 1) The effect of capital controls is nearly the same as that of complete controls. Net exports will form a larger premium to interest rate parity, and the persistence of foreign exchange market shocks is relatively lower. 2) The shocks of foreign exchange market change domestic consumption and net exports via the international risk-sharing mechanism,but capital controls will suppress risk-sharing mechanism to play. Capital controls would make the trade shocks be quickly suppressed, but domestic economic variables are impacted laggedly. 3) Perfect capital mobility does significantly increase economic fluctuations; but under the current strict capital controls, moderate deregulation does not affect the economic stability; to some extent, it is beneficial to the stability of output, consumption and interest rates.

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谢绵陛.资本管制下的国际冲击传导和经济稳定[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2015,21(2):32-41. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831.2015.02.005

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  • 收稿日期:2014-10-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-03-03
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