“一带一路”沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应——基于贸易成本和全要素生产率的中介效应分析
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中图分类号:

F752.7;F49

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目"打造陆海内外联动、东西双向开放的全面开放新格局研究"(15ZDC017);国家自然科学基金青年项目"人民币跨境结算的制度约束、交易者认知偏差及贸易效应研究"(71903161);教育部人文社科规划青年项目"人民币跨境金融交易的机理及路径研究"(18YJC790022);渭南师范学院教学改革研究项目"‘一带一路’背景下的《国际经济学》双语课程微课设计研究"(JG201709)


Trade effect of the Internet infrastructure in the countries along “The Belt and Road”: Analysis of mediating effect of trade cost and total factor productivity
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    摘要:

    在"一带一路"建设背景下,研究阐释"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应及其作用机制,对于当前中国优化沿线国家的互联网基础设施建设布局,有效激发贸易效应,应对外贸环境的不利冲击,具有重要的现实意义。文章基于贸易成本和全要素生产率的分析视角,构建2007-2017年中国与45个"一带一路"沿线国家的面板数据,运用中介效应模型实证考察"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应。总体检验结果表明,"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施有利于中国与沿线国家的双边贸易往来,且主要通过降低贸易成本而非提高全要素生产率来发挥贸易效应。异质性检验结果表明,无论区分贸易方向还是沿线国家经济发展差异,互联网基础设施都具有明显的贸易效应,其中:贸易成本的中介效应主要发生在沿线发达国家对中国进、出口贸易中;全要素生产率的中介效应主要发生在沿线国家对中国出口贸易以及沿线发展中国家对中国进出口贸易中。新形势下中国参与"一带一路"沿线国家的互联网基础设施建设,要注意合理布局和把握建设力度,既培育贸易增长新动能,也优化进出口贸易结构。

    Abstract:

    An in-depth study of the trade effects and mechanisms of Internet infrastructure in countries along "The Belt and Road" is important for China to optimize the layout of Internet infrastructure construction in countries along "The Belt and Road", to effectively stimulate trade effects, and to deal with the negative impact of the world trade environment. Based on the perspectives of trade cost and total factor productivity (TFP), this paper constructs panel data between China and 45 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2007 to 2017, and empirically examines the trade effect of the Internet infrastructure of countries along "The Belt and Road" using the mediation effect model. The overall test results show that the Internet infrastructure of countries along "The Belt and Road" is conducive to bilateral trade between China and those countries, and the trade effect is mainly achieved by reducing trade costs rather than increasing total factor productivity. Heterogeneity test results show that Internet infrastructure has obvious trade effects regardless of the difference in trade direction or economic development of countries along "The Belt and Road". The intermediary effect of trade cost mainly occurs in the import and export trade of developed countries to China, and the intermediary effect of total factor productivity mainly occurs in the export trade of countries to China and the import and export trade of developing countries to China. In the new situation, China should take part in the construction of the Internet infrastructure along "The Belt and Road" and pay attention to the rational layout and grasp the intensity of construction, not only cultivate the new kinetic energy of trade growth, but also optimize the structure of import and export trade.

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赵维,邓富华,霍伟东.“一带一路”沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应——基于贸易成本和全要素生产率的中介效应分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2020,26(3):19-33. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2019.12.005

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-01
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