双循环背景下东道国国家风险对我国企业海外并购绩效的影响
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F125;F271;F832.51

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Study on the strategy of overseas M & A of Chinese enterprises under the domestic and international dual cycle
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    摘要:

    企业海外并购作为双循环战略中外循环的重要组成部分,既能为国际循环积极布局,扩大海外市场,也可以为国内循环引进先进技术、保障原材料供给。文章运用事件研究法,用累积平均超额收益率和会计指标法,结合中国海外投资国家风险评级体系(CROIC-IWEP)对我国A股上市公司2014—2018年海外并购的短期和长期绩效进行研究。实证结果表明,国家综合风险、政治风险、经济风险、金融风险对我国企业海外并购绩效均呈负面影响,其中政治风险的影响最为显著,而良好的对华关系对我国企业海外并购绩效能产生正面作用,其中对华关系次好的国家(地区)对我国企业并购后的超常收益率影响最为显著。进一步研究发现,企业通过其海外子公司进行并购能降低东道国国家风险的影响,增加并购成功率;金融机构和中介机构在并购过程中能缓解企业与标的之间的信息不对称,也能提高并购成功率,并扩大并购规模。由此提出建立国家风险识别、预警和管控机制,建立海外投资风险分担机制,构建经济共同体等对策建议。

    Abstract:

    Overseas mergers and acquisitions (hereafter called M&A) by Chinese enterprises are an important component of outer circulation under the dual cycle strategy, which not only actively layouts for international circulation, but also introduces advanced technology, expands overseas markets, and ensures the supply of raw materials for domestic circulation. This paper studies the short-term and long-term performance of overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2018 by using the event study method, cumulative average excess return and accounting indicator method, and combining with China overseas Investment National Risk Rating System (CROIC-IWEP). The study finds that country risk, political risk, economic risk and financial risk all have a negative effect on the overseas M&A performance of Chinese enterprises, and political risk' negative effect is most obvious. A good relationship with China can have a positive effect on the overseas M&A performance, among which the countries or regions with the second-best relationship with China have the most significant impact on the abnormal return rate after M&A. Further research shows that enterprises can increase the success rate of M&A through their overseas subsidiaries. Meanwhile, financial institutions and intermediaries can alleviate the information asymmetry between acquirer and its target firm in the process of M&A, which is helpful to improve the success rate and scale of M&A. Therefore, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as establishing national risk identification, early warning and control mechanism, establishing overseas investment risk sharing mechanism, and constructing economic community.

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兰洁,林爱杰.双循环背景下东道国国家风险对我国企业海外并购绩效的影响[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2021,27(3):228-244. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2021.02.001

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-06-09
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