中国数字经济发展的时空分异及影响因素研究
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中图分类号:

F49

基金项目:

新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目"新疆旅游经济高质量发展评价、动能与路径研究"(21BJY046);国家社会科学基金项目"新疆文化与旅游产业绿色融合发展研究"(20BJY211)


Research on spatio-temporal divergence and influencing factors of digital economy development in China
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    摘要:

    党的二十大报告中明确提出了建设数字中国、加快发展数字经济。目前各地区间仍存在"数字鸿沟"问题,剖析数字经济发展的时空差异是实现数字经济均衡发展的重要前提。基于此,文章以2013—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据为样本,构建数字经济发展评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算出各省域数字经济的发展水平,运用Dagum基尼系数实证分析东中西地区数字经济发展水平的差异及时空变化规律,并通过地理探测器来考察经济社会因素对数字经济影响的时空分异。结果表明:北京、上海、江苏、浙江、山东和广东六地数字经济发展水平处于全国前列,而新疆、西藏、青海等西部地区数字经济发展程度较低。2013—2019年均增长率最大的地区是重庆,增幅达8.4%,其次是西藏、贵州和四川,年均增长率分别为8.3%、7.4%和4.8%。中国各地区数字经济发展差异明显,空间上呈现出自东向西阶梯递减的趋势。从时间分布来看,2013—2019年间,中国中西部整体的数字经济发展水平在提高,但东北地区省份数字经济水平处于波动下降趋势。总的来说,数字经济发展的时空分异明显。数字经济在东中西地区发展的不平衡主要是由区域间差异所引起,区域间基尼系数最大的为西部—东部,而中部—西部区域间的基尼系数最小。中部—东部地区的区域间基尼系数在考察期内不断上下波动。西部—东部数字经济差异在前期不断上升,在2014年时达到峰值,而后大体上区域差异具有整体收敛的趋势。中部—西部的区域间差异总体来说变动不大,在2014年后基本趋于稳定。东部地区区域内各省份数字经济发展水平的差异最大而中部地区各省份数字经济差异则是最小。东部地区的区域内基尼系数出现了轻微上升,中部地区数字经济差异在2016年前较为稳定,在2017—2019年存在明显的扩大,西部地区区域内差异处于不断波动状态,但总体上存在上升的趋势。从全国范围来看,第三产业发展水平、市场化程度和经济水平为导致全国数字经济分异的决定性因素。社会经济因素对区域数字经济水平的影响呈现出明显的差异性,不同时间、地区各驱动要素的作用强度并不相同,因此数字经济高质量发展政策的制定应考虑不同指标影响程度在时间和地区的差异性,从而使其更具针对性。

    Abstract:

    The strategic intention of building digital China and accelerating the development of digital economy is clearly planned in the Report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, but the problem of "digital divide" still exists among different regions, and analyzing the spatial and temporal differences in the development of digital economy is an important prerequisite for the balanced development of digital economy. Based on this, this paper takes the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2019 as samples, constructs the digital economy development evaluation index system, calculates the development level of digital economy in each province by entropy weight method, empirically analyzes the spatio-temporal variation of digital economy by using Dagum Gini coefficient, and examines the spatio-temporal variation of economic and social factors on digital economy by geographic probe. The results show that:1) Six regions, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Guangdong, are at the forefront of digital economy development in China, while the western regions, such as Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai, are at a lower level of digital economy development. The largest average annual growth rate from 2013 to 2019 is that of Chongqing, with an increase of 8.4%, followed by Tibet, Guizhou and Sichuan, with average annual growth rates of 8.3%, 7.4% and 4.8%; 2) The development of digital economy varies significantly among regions in China, with a spatially decreasing trend from east to west in a stepwise manner. In terms of temporal distribution, the overall digital economy development level in central and western China is increasing during 2013-2019, but the digital economy level in the northeastern provinces is in a fluctuating downward trend. In general, the temporal and spatial divergence of digital economy development is obvious; 3) The imbalance of digital economy development in East-West regions is mainly caused by inter-regional differences, and the largest inter-regional Gini coefficient is West-East, while the smallest inter-regional Gini coefficient is in Central-West. The inter-regional Gini coefficient of Central-Eastern region keeps fluctuating up and down during the examination period. The West-East digital economy disparity kept rising in the early period and reached a peak in 2014, while the regional disparity by and large had an overall convergence trend thereafter. The inter-regional differences between the Central-Western region are generally less variable and basically stabilized after 2014; 4) The differences in the level of digital economy development among the provinces in the eastern region are the largest while the digital economy differences among the provinces in the central region are the smallest. The intra-regional Gini coefficient in the eastern region shows a slight increase, the digital economy difference in the central region is more stable until 2016, and there is an obvious expansion in 2017-2019, and the intra-regional difference in the western region is in a state of constant fluctuation, but in general there is an upward trend; 5) From a national perspective, the level of tertiary industry development, the degree of marketization and the economic level are the decisive factors leading to the national digital nationwide, the level of tertiary industry development, the degree of marketization and the economic level are the decisive factors leading to the divergence of the national digital economy. The impact of socio-economic factors on the regional digital economy level shows obvious differences, and the intensity of the role of each driving factor is not the same at different times and regions. Therefore, the formulation of policies for high-quality development of digital economy should consider the differences in the degree of impact of different indicators over time and regions, so as to make them more targeted.

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吕雁琴,范天正.中国数字经济发展的时空分异及影响因素研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2023,29(3):47-60. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2023.04.002

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-07-13
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