多边汇率、OFDI与能源贸易——基于中国与“一带一路”国家传统能源贸易实证分析
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中图分类号:

F752;F830;F426.2;F832.6

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重点项目"'新能源人民币’形成机理及实现路径研究"(23AJY023)


Multilateral exchange rates, OFDI and energy trade: Empirical analysis based on the traditional energy trade of China with countries along the “Belt and Road”
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    摘要:

    能源作为重要的经济要素之一,是国民经济稳定和发展的基石。受新冠疫情、地缘政治风险、极端天气等多重因素影响,全球能源危机或将进一步加剧。作为全球最大的能源消费国、净进口国,并受汇率波动及全球能源危机影响,我国传统能源进口已出现结构性失衡。作者选择传统能源出口量排名较高的澳大利亚、美国及"一带一路"合作国家中的俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、印度尼西亚等6个国家作为研究对象,并整理了2006—2021年我国从该6个国家的传统能源进口数据。首先,依据OFDI贸易效应理论,引入多边汇率波动影响因子,运用贸易引力模型,研究了多边汇率波动、能源对外直接投资(OFDI)以及国际能源战略合作对我国传统能源进口的影响机理;其次,基于国际投资理论,构建了多边汇率波动和能源OFDI双因素、多因素对我国传统能源进口调节机制检验模型,分析了多边汇率波动对能源OFDI进口效应的调节作用;最后,依据国际贸易理论,分析汇率、投资、能源战略合作对我国传统能源进口的综合影响路径,研究了"石油美元"对我国传统能源进口的影响作用。研究表明:多边汇率波动对我国传统能源进口具有显著抑制作用,其中人民币单边汇率失衡的抑制作用最强,双边汇率波动的抑制作用次之,第三方汇率波动的抑制作用最弱;能源OFDI对我国传统能源进口存在显著进口促进作用,国际能源管道联通建设对我国传统能源进口具有显著促进作用;同时,多边汇率波动和能源OFDI双因素、多因素对我国传统能源进口的调节效应分析表明,人民币单边汇率失衡、双边汇率波动对能源OFDI的进口促进效应均具有增强作用,第三方汇率波动对能源OFDI的进口促进效应具有抑制作用,多边汇率波动的综合交互项对能源OFDI的进口效应具有显著的调节促进作用;短期内,"石油美元"在国际传统能源贸易市场中仍具有重要地位,人民币兑美元汇率波动在国际投资决策中仍是关键参考项。因此,我国应持续推进能源供需结构优化,大力发展新能源,积极布局推广国际贸易中"新能源+人民币"战略,赋能能源绿色转型,助力我国能源安全;通过在"RCEP"及"一带一路"沿线国家中进一步扩大人民币经常项目下的结算范围和份额,推进"人民币—石油"战略布局;通过加强同俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚等国家的能源贸易对话,深化国际能源贸易合作,促进我国能源投资区域多样化;此外,我国还应引导企业在能源贸易投资决策时遵循"汇率中性"理念,鼓励企业将套期保值纳入日常财务决策中,规避能源汇率风险,提高企业对汇率双向波动新常态的适应力。

    Abstract:

    As one of the important economic factors, energy is the cornerstone of national economic stability and development. Affected by multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic, geopolitical risks, and extreme weather, the global energy crisis may further intensify. As the world’s largest energy consumer and net importer, and affected by exchange rate fluctuations and the global energy crisis, China’s traditional energy exports have been structurally unbalanced. The authors select six countries with high traditional energy export volumes, including Australia, the United States, and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Indonesia among the "Belt and Road" cooperation countries, as the research objects, and collate the traditional energy import data of China from these six countries from 2006 to 2021,firstly, introduce the influence factor of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations according to the OFDI trade effect theory, and use the trade gravity model to study the impact mechanism of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations, energy foreign direct investment (OFDI) and international energy strategic cooperation on China’s traditional energy imports. Secondly, based on international investment theory, a test model of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations and energy OFDI two-factor and multi-factor adjustment mechanism on China’s traditional energy imports is constructed, and the adjustment effect of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations on energy OFDI imports is analyzed. Finally, according to the theory of international trade, the comprehensive impact path of exchange rate, investment and energy strategic cooperation on China’s traditional energy imports is analyzed, and the influence of "petrodollar" on China’s traditional energy imports is studied. The results show that multilateral exchange rate fluctuations have a significant inhibitory effect on China’s traditional energy imports, among which the unilateral exchange rate imbalance of RMB has the strongest inhibitory effect, the inhibition effect of bilateral exchange rate fluctuation is the second, and the inhibitory effect of third-party exchange rate fluctuation is the weakest. Energy OFDI has a significant import promotion effect on China’s traditional energy imports, and the construction of international energy pipeline connectivity has a significant role in promoting China’s traditional energy imports. At the same time, the analysis of the adjustment effect of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations and energy OFDI dual factors and multiple factors on China’s traditional energy imports shows that the unilateral exchange rate imbalance of RMB and bilateral exchange rate fluctuations have an enhanced effect on the import promotion effect of energy OFDI, the exchange rate fluctuations of third-party countries have a restraining effect on the import promotion effect of energy OFDI, and the comprehensive interaction of multilateral exchange rate fluctuations has a significant regulating and promoting effect on the import effect of energy OFDI. In the short term, the "petrodollar" still plays an important role in the international traditional energy trade market, and the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is still a key reference item in international investment decisions. Therefore, China should continue to promote the optimization of energy supply and demand structure, vigorously develop new energy, actively layout and promote the "new energy + RMB" strategy in international trade, empower the green transformation of energy, and help China’s energy security; Promote the "RMB-oil" strategic layout by further expanding the settlement scope and share under the current account of RMB among countries along the "RCEP" and the "Belt and Road"; Deepen international energy trade cooperation by strengthening energy trade dialogue with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and other countries, and promote the diversification of China’s energy investment regions; In addition, China should also guide enterprises to follow the concept of "exchange rate neutrality" in energy trade and investment decisions, encourage enterprises to incorporate hedging into daily financial decisions, avoid energy exchange rate risks, and improve the adaptability of enterprises to the new normal of two-way exchange rate fluctuations.

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谢非,王洋.多边汇率、OFDI与能源贸易——基于中国与“一带一路”国家传统能源贸易实证分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2023,29(6):69-84. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2023.06.002

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