中国对“一带一路”沿线直接投资的减贫效应研究
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教育部经贸类教指委2020年金课项目"《世界经济》课程学生参与式浸透教学项目建设";贵州省级金课项目《国际贸易实务》(2022JKXN0011);贵州大学教改项目《世界经济概论》(XJG2021017)


Research on the poverty reduction effect of China’s direct investment along the "Belt and Road"
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    摘要:

    近年来,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资持续增加,合作领域不断拓展,合作程度不断深入,在此背景下探讨中国对外直接投资对沿线国家是否具有优良的减贫效应,减贫效应是否会因国家属性不同而产生异质性的影响,这种减贫效应又是通过何种渠道、何种机制来传导的,这一系列问题的解答对理论与实践都具有重大意义。文章基于2009—2019年“一带一路”沿线63国的面板数据,依照所属区域大致将沿线63个国家划分为六大板块,构建与对外直接投资的减贫效应相关的计量模型,实证分析中国对东道国直接投资的减贫效应,并采取中介效应检验的方法探索直接投资的减贫效应传导机制。研究表明:中国对外直接投资对降低东道国贫困率的成效显著,为当地经济发展带来强劲的“拉力”,显著地促进了“一带一路”沿线国家的贫困人口的减少。异质性分析表明:这种减贫效应不存在明显的地理区域偏向性,也不以国家经济发展水平为绝对界限;以“是否布局有孔子学院”作为代理变量来衡量文化距离的远近,在“文化距离近”的国家效果更为优良,而对于“文化距离远”的国家影响并不显著。中介效应分析表明:在中国对外直接投资发挥减贫作用的过程中,就业创造与基础设施建设承担了部分中介效应的功能,通过这两种机制,东道国经济的自生能力得到有效提升,授人以鱼不如授人以渔,中国通过创造就业岗位与完善基础建设“双渠道”,提升东道国的自生能力,为当地经济可持续发展带来了源源不断的动力,发展步入良性循环。通过关注贫困群体的能力建设,因地制宜地挖掘贫困地区潜在市场的比较优势,来实现自主减贫。与“输血式”减贫相比,这种“造血式”的减贫方式以提升自生能力为导向,更为有效而持续。为避免模型中内生性问题对研究结论的影响,以中国对外直接投资的一阶滞后项作为工具变量重新进行回归,原结论仍然成立;为保证文章实证分析结论的可靠性,采取分别替换核心解释变量与被解释变量的方法进行稳健性检验,最终的研究结论具有稳健性。基于上述分析,文章提出以就业岗位创造为本、以人才培训为源、以基础设施建设为先,进一步优化中国对外直接投资流向,促进减贫合作。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, China's direct investment in countries along the "Belt and Road" has continued to increase, cooperation areas have continued to expand, and the degree of cooperation has continued to deepen. In this context, does China's OFDI have a good poverty reduction effect on countries along the "Belt and Road"? Do poverty reduction effects vary heterogeneously by country attribute? And through what channels and mechanisms is this poverty reduction effect transmitted? The answers to this series of questions are of great significance to both theory and practice. Based on the panel data of 63 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2009 to 2019,the 63 countries along the route have been broadly divided into six sectors, according to the regions to which they belong. This paper constructs an econometric model related to the poverty reduction effect of foreign direct investment, empirically analyzes the poverty reduction effect of China's direct investment in the host country, and adopts the method of intermediary effect test to explore the transmission mechanism of the poverty reduction effect of direct investment. Studies have shown that China's foreign direct investment has a significant effect on reducing the poverty rate of the host country, bringing a strong "pull" to local economic development, significantly contributing to the reduction of poverty in the countries along the "Belt and Road". Heterogeneity analysis shows that: There is no clear geographic bias in this poverty reduction effect, nor does it take the national economic development level as an absolute limit. Measuring cultural distance using "whether there is a Confucius Institute" as a proxy variable, the effect is better in countries that are "culturally close" and not significant in countries that are "culturally distant". The mediation effects analysis shows that: In the process of China's OFDI playing a role in poverty reduction, job creation and infrastructure construction have assumed part of the function of intermediary effects. Through these two mechanisms, the self-generating capacity of the host economy is effectively enhanced. Through the "dual channels" of job creation and infrastructure improvement, China has enhanced the self-sustainability of host countries and brought a continuous impetus to the sustainable development of the local economy, which has entered into a virtuous cycle of development. Autonomous poverty reduction can be achieved by focusing on capacity building for poor groups and tapping the comparative advantages of potential markets in poor areas according to local conditions. This "blood-creation" approach to poverty reduction is more long-term and sustainable than the "blood transfusion" approach, which is oriented towards enhancing self-reliance. In order to avoid endogeneity problems in the model from influencing the conclusions of the study, re-regressing the first-order lagged term of China's OFDI as an instrumental variable, the original conclusions are still valid; In order to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of the empirical analysis of the article, this paper adopts the method of replacing the core explanatory variables and the explanatory variables respectively to carry out the robustness test, and the final conclusions of the study are robust. Based on the above analysis, the article proposes to further optimize the flow of China's OFDI and promote poverty reduction cooperation by taking job creation as the basis, talent training as the source and infrastructure construction as the priority.

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李玉娟,董子婧.中国对“一带一路”沿线直接投资的减贫效应研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2024,(1):71-86. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2023.11.001

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-15
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