数字基础设施对城市碳排放的时空动态效应——基于“宽带中国”准自然实验的证
作者:
作者单位:

1a. 西华师范大学 商学院,四川 南充 637009;1b. 西华师范大学 嘉陵江流域现代产业高质量发展研究中心,四川 南充 637009;2. 重庆工商大学 长江上游经济研究中心,重庆 400067

中图分类号:

F49

基金项目:

重庆市教委人文社会科学重点项目“人口结构变化下重庆农村基本公共服务可及性提升机制研究”(22SKGH196);重庆市研究生科研创新项目“绿色发展理念下数字经济对长江经济带城市群碳排放的影响机理及实证研究”(CYB22270);重庆工商大学“学习贯彻党的十九届六中全会精神”专题重点课题“百年来党对中国式现代化道路探索的演进逻辑与经验启示研究”(ctbu1zqh07)


The space-time dynamic effects of digital infrastructure on urban carbon emissions: Evidence based on the quasi-natural experiment of Broadband China
Author:
Affiliation:

1a. School of Business, China West Normal University, Nanchong637009, P. R. China;1b. High-Quality Development Research Center for Modern Industries of Jialing River Basin, China West Normal University, Nanchong637009, P. R. China;2. Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing400067, P. R. China

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    摘要:

    随着数字经济成为实现经济高质量发展和绿色低碳转型的大势之趋,数字基础设施建设也上升至国家战略层面。在此背景下,深入探讨数字基础设施对碳排放的内在影响机制,从理论和实证两方面系统分析“宽带中国”试点政策效果是否具有动态持续性和空间溢出效应,这对于进一步落实网络强国、数字中国等国家战略,深入推进数字基础设施建设,探索低碳绿色发展的新型城市发展模式和治理模式具有重要的现实意义。文章将数字基础设施和碳排放纳入同一框架,从理论层面探讨数字基础设施对碳排放的内在影响机制和时空动态效应,创新性地将双重差分的思想纳入空间矩阵的构建中,以“宽带中国”战略为准自然实验,基于2006—2019年中国地级市面板数据,利用渐进双重差分法、空间计量模型、中介效应模型对数字基础设施影响碳排放的内在机制及时空动态效应进行检验。研究结果表明:“宽带中国”示范城市建设对碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,这一结论在通过了工具变量法、三重差分法、PSM-DID等稳健性检验后仍成立。影响机制分析表明:数字基础设施既能直接影响碳排放,又能通过产业结构升级、绿色技术创新的中介渠道促进碳减排。时空动态效应分析表明:“宽带中国”试点政策对碳排放的影响具有时滞性,碳减排效果在政策实施后第二年才会发挥,但随着时间推移呈现出边际效应递增的趋势;并且,“宽带中国”试点政策对地理相近和经济相似地区的碳排放存在着正向空间溢出效应。异质性分析发现:“宽带中国”政策的碳减排效应在西部地区不显著,在东部和中部地区更明显,并且中部地区的效果大于东部地区。因此,文章建议继续完善数字基础设施建设、加强“宽带中国”试点政策的推广;因地制宜,统筹考虑各城市不同发展特征,实施动态化、差异化策略;同时,加快产业结构转型升级、提升绿色技术创新水平,畅通数字基础设施促进碳减排的中间渠道。

    Abstract:

    As digital economy becomes a trend to achieve high-quality economic development and green low-carbon transformation, digital infrastructure also rises to the level of national strategy. In this context, in-depth exploration of the intrinsic impact mechanism of digital infrastructure on carbon emissions, and systematic analysis of whether the Broadband China policy has dynamic sustainability and spatial spillover effects from theoretical and empirical perspectives are of great practical significance for the further implementation of the national strategies of Network Power and Digital China, and for the advancement of the construction of digital infrastructure and the exploration of new urban development models and governance models for low-carbon development. This paper puts digital infrastructure and carbon emission into the same framework, explores the intrinsic influence mechanism and spatial-temporal dynamic effect of digital infrastructure on carbon emission from the theoretical level, and innovatively incorporates double-difference into the construction of spatial matrices. Based on the Broadband China strategy as a quasi-natural experiment, using the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019, this paper utilizes the asymptotic double difference method, spatial model and mediation effect model to test the intrinsic mechanism and spatial-temporal dynamic effect. The results show that the Broadband China policy has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, and this conclusion still holds after the robustness tests of instrumental variables method, triple difference method, and PSM-DID. Impact mechanism analysis shows that digital infrastructure can both directly affect carbon emissions and promote carbon emission reduction through industrial structure upgrading and green technology innovation. Spatial-temporal dynamic effects analysis shows that the impact of the Broadband China policy on carbon emissions has a time lag, and it will be played only in the second year, but the marginal effect shows an increasing trend over time. Moreover, the Broadband China policy has a positive spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions in geographically and economically similar regions. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the carbon emission reduction effect of the Broadband China policy is not significant in the western region, but more obvious in the eastern and central regions, and the effect in the central region is larger than eastern region. Therefore, the article suggests continuing to improve the digital infrastructure, strengthening the promotion of the pilot policy of Broadband China; implementing dynamic and differentiated strategies according to local conditions; accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, improving the level of green technological innovation, and smoothing the intermediate channels of digital infrastructure for carbon emission reduction.

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汪亚美,余兴厚.数字基础设施对城市碳排放的时空动态效应——基于“宽带中国”准自然实验的证[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,(1):100-116. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2024.10.004

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-25
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