经济周期视角下区域协同发展研究——以西部地区为例
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西安交通大学 经济与金融学院,陕西 西安 710061

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F061.5

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A study on regional coordinated development in the perspective of business cycle: A case study of the western region
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School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an710061, P R China

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    摘要:

    党的二十届三中全会强调,完善实施区域协调发展战略机制,健全推动西部大开发形成新格局的制度和政策体系。当前西部地区发展的不平衡与不充分依然突出,如何增强区域协同能力,强化区域经济联系,引领区域高质量发展已成为西部大开发亟待解决的现实问题。在此背景下,基于协同发展理念,以经济周期协同性为切入点,利用西部地区2006—2020年省域混频数据对西部地区协同发展水平进行量化评估,并在此基础上探讨其影响因素,对区域内部协同发展状况进行深入分析。研究结果表明:2006—2009年西部地区协同发展指数呈现“缓降急增”态势,之后指数波动幅度明显减缓,呈现“缓起缓落”态势。西北与西南地区协同发展水平出现明显分化,西北地区协同发展程度略高于西南地区。同时,川渝地区作为重要增长极与贵州、西藏协同发展程度较低,说明其对欠发达地区辐射能力有限。进一步分析发现,地方政府干预程度、产业结构相似程度和对外开放程度都会对区域协同发展造成影响,其中政府干预程度和产业结构相似程度是核心影响因素,表明地方政府对经济发展干预程度越相似,产业结构差别越大,越能推进区域协同发展。据此,提出如下研究建议:一是要推动区域内循环,应对外部冲击;二是树立协同发展观念,破除行政壁垒;三是要实施差别化产业结构,消除同质竞争;四是要优化交通设施布局,谨防虹吸效应。文章的创新之处主要体现在:研究视角上,文章构建经济周期协同性指数,为解释区域协同发展变化趋势提供了新的视角,考察西部地区协同发展动态变化过程;研究方法上,文章采用的马尔科夫混频动态因子模型突破了传统计量经济模型必须采用同频数据限制,既利用了月度数据及时刻画经济运行态势,又兼顾经济周期监测中GDP这一重要季度数据指标,更好地反映区域协同发展整体动态演化特征;研究内容上,在测度西部地区协同发展水平的基础上,讨论西部地区经济周期协同性的影响因素用来判断影响西部地区协同发展的核心因素,为促进区域协同发展,防止内部发展差距进一步扩大,提供一定的经验证据和重要的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee has stressed perfecting and improving the strategic mechanism for coordinated development among regions, and improving the system and policies for promoting the development of the western region to form a new pattern. At present, the imbalance and inadequacy of the development of the western region are still prominent. How to enhance regional synergy, strengthen regional economic ties and lead high-quality regional development has become an urgent practical problem to be solved in the western development. In this context, based on the concept of coordinated development, taking the synchronization of business cycle as the starting point, the degree of coordinated development in the western region is quantitatively assessed using inter-provincial mixed-frequency data from 2006 to 2020 in the western region, and based on this, the influencing factors are empirically demonstrated to provide an in-depth analysis of the coordinated development status within the region. Results of the study show that the synergistic development index of the western region shows a slow decline and sharp increase from 2006 to 2009, after which the fluctuation of the index slows down significantly, showing a slow rise and slow fall. The level of synergistic development of the northwestern and southwestern regions is obviously differentiated, and the degree of synergistic development in the northwestern region is slightly higher than that in the southwestern region. At the same time, the level of synergistic development between Sichuan and Chongqing, as an important growth pole, and Guizhou and Tibet is relatively low, indicating that its radiation capacity for less developed regions is limited. Regression estimation results show that the degree of government intervention, the similarity of industrial structure and the degree of opening up all have an impact on regional coordinated development, with the degree of government intervention and the similarity of industrial structure being the core influencing factors, indicating that the more similar the degree of local government intervention in economic development and the greater the difference in industrial structure, the more it can promote regional coordinated development. Accordingly, the following research suggestions are put forward: First, we should promote regional circulation and cope with external shocks. The second is to establish the concept of coordinated development and break down administrative barriers. The third is to implement differentiated industrial structure and eliminate homogeneous competition. Fourth, we should optimize the layout of transportation facilities and guard against siphon effect. Innovation of this paper is: From the research perspective, this paper constructs the economic cycle synergy index, which provides a new perspective for explaining the trend of regional coordinated development and examines the dynamic change process of coordinated development in the western region. In terms of research methods, the Markov-switching mixed-frequency dynamic factor model used in the article breaks through the limitation that the traditional econometrical model must adopt the same frequency data, not only uses monthly data to depict the economic operation situation in time, but also takes into account GDP, an important quarterly data indicator in business cycle monitoring, to better reflect the overall dynamic evolution characteristics of regional coordinated development. In terms of research content, on the basis of measuring the level of coordinated development in the western region, this paper discusses the factors affecting the synchronization of business cycle in the western region, which is used to judge the core factors affecting the coordinated development in the western region, so as to provide some empirical evidence and important policy suggestions for promoting regional coordinated development and preventing the further expansion of internal development gap.

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李梦丹,赵春艳.经济周期视角下区域协同发展研究——以西部地区为例[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,31(2):69-84. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2025.02.005

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-05-29
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