中国城市新质生产力的空间分异、障碍瞄准及影响因素
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作者单位:

1.广西民族大学,民族学与社会学学院,广西 南宁 530006;2.广西民族大学,经济学院,广西 南宁 530006

作者简介:

曾鹏,广西民族大学民族学与社会学学院教授,研究生院院长,博士研究生导师,Email:zengpengfast@163.com。

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中图分类号:

F299.2

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代我国西部中心城市和城市群高质量协调发展战略究”(20&ZD157)


Spatial differentiation, obstacle targeting, and influencing factors of new quality productive forces in Chinese cities
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Ethnology and Sociology, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530006, P. R. China;2.School of Economics, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530006, P. R. China

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    摘要:

    在高质量发展背景下,新质生产力正成为中国式现代化的重要动力。新质生产力的实质是当代的先进生产力,而高质量发展需要新质生产力作为现实和理论指导。对新质生产力的空间分异格局、分维障碍识别和影响因素进行研究,能够深化对新质生产力的理解,为新质生产力空间开发、培育清障,为政府调控提供理论支撑,对中国各城市加快形成新质生产力、促进经济社会高质量发展具有重要意义。新质生产力的发展离不开产业链、创新链、人才链和资金链,新质生产力的培育与“四链”融合亦存在内在一致性。文章使用2011—2021年城市面板数据,基于“四链”融合视角构建城市新质生产力评价指标体系,使用熵值法对中国城市新质生产力水平进行测度,运用空间趋势面和新兴时空冷热点分析了新质生产力的空间分异,并挖掘出影响新质生产力提升的障碍维度,采用地理探测器考察了新质生产力分布的影响因素。结果表明:其一,中国城市新质生产力水平存在较显著的极化现象,并在总体上升的趋势下逐渐转弱,高值区分布在东部地区的京津冀、珠三角、长三角,且日趋聚集。其二,中国城市新质生产力的发展总体受阻,但状况随时间推移明显转好,障碍减少趋势明显。在所有障碍出现的概率中,产业障碍>金融障碍>科技障碍>教育障碍,其中,四维障碍是概率最大的组合。其三,从新质生产力的影响因素看,相比自然因素,社会维度因素对新质生产力的解释力度更强,但是,自然因素能够通过与社会因素形成共同作用影响新质生产力的空间分布。文章可能的创新点主要有:其一,基于“四链”融合视角构建新质生产力指标体系,为新质生产力的测度提供新视角;其二,从城市层面测度并分析了新质生产力的时空分异,拓展了新质生产力的研究尺度;其三,从产业、科技、教育、金融四个维度识别城市新质生产力提升的内在障碍维度进行诊断,并从自然和社会两个维度对影响新质生产力的外在因素进行探索,为新质生产力的形成提供实证证据。

    Abstract:

    In the context of high-quality development, new quality productive forces have become an important driving force for Chinese-style modernization. The essence of new quality productive forces lies in contemporary advanced productive forces, and high-quality development requires new quality productive forces as both a practical and theoretical guide. Research on the spatial differentiation patterns, fractal dimension barriers, and influencing factors of new quality productive forces can deepen the understanding of new quality productive forces, providing theoretical support for spatial development, barrier removal, and government regulation of new quality productive forces. It is of great significance for accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces in Chinese cities and promoting high-quality economic and social development. The development of new quality productive forces is inseparable from the industrial chain, innovation chain, talent chain, and financial chain, and the cultivation of new quality productive forces is intrinsically consistent with the integration of these four chains. This paper utilizes panel data from 2011 to 2021 for Chinese cities, constructing an evaluation index system for urban new quality productive forces based on the perspective of four-chain integration. Using the entropy method, it measures the level of new quality productive forces in Chinese cities, analyzes the spatial differentiation through spatial trend surfaces and emerging spatiotemporal cold and hot spots, identifies the barrier dimensions affecting the enhancement of new quality productive forces, and employs the geographic detector method to investigate factors influencing the distribution of new quality productive forces. The results indicate the following: First, there is a significant polarization phenomenon in the levels of new quality productive forces among Chinese cities, though this trend weakens over time with a general upward trajectory. High-value areas are concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta, with increasing clustering. Second, the development of new quality productive forces in Chinese cities has generally been hindered, but conditions have significantly improved over time, with a clear trend of reduced barriers. Among the probabilities of all barriers, industrial barriers > financial barriers > technological barriers > educational barriers, with four-dimensional barriers being the most likely combination. Third, in terms of the influencing factors of new quality productive forces, social factors have a stronger explanatory power compared to natural factors; however, natural factors can interact with social factors to jointly influence the spatial distribution of new quality productive forces. The potential innovations of this paper include: First, the construction of a new quality productive force index system based on the perspective of four-chain integration, providing a new perspective for measuring new quality productive forces; second, the measurement and analysis of the spatiotemporal differentiation of new quality productive forces at the urban level, expanding the research scale of new quality productive forces; and third, the identification and diagnosis of internal barrier dimensions affecting the improvement of new quality productive forces from the perspectives of industry, technology, education, and finance, as well as the exploration of external influencing factors from natural and social dimensions, providing empirical evidence for the formation of new quality productive forces.

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曾鹏,周联超,宋航.中国城市新质生产力的空间分异、障碍瞄准及影响因素[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,31(4):1-15. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2025.04.001

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-15
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