新质生产力发展潜力测度、时空差异及战略着力点研究
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作者单位:

1.1a重庆大学 公共管理学院,重庆 400044;2.1b 重庆大学 新质生产力研究院,重庆 400044;3.中国农业大学 国际学院,北京 100083

作者简介:

冉戎,重庆大学公共管理学院教授,Email: ranrong@cqu.edu.cn
花磊(通信作者),重庆大学公共管 理学院博士研究生,Email: Leihuawh@163.com。

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中图分类号:

F124;F120.3

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目面上项目“行政问责及治理政策工具影响企业非市场战略配置”(72074035);重庆市重大决策咨询研究课题“打造‘33618’现代制造业集群体系培育新质生产力研究”(2024ZB05);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“引导新质生产力因地制宜发展的公共政策体系研究”(2024CDJSKZK11)


Study on potential measurement, temporal-spatial differences and strategic focus of development of new quality productive forces
Author:
Affiliation:

1.1aSchool of Public Policy and Administration;2.1bInstitute for New Quality Productive Forces, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, P. R. China;3.International College, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, P. R. China

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    摘要:

    党的二十届三中全会通过《关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》,要求“健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制”,并对新质生产力的发展作出了全面的部署。通过对新质生产力发展潜力进行测度,可以充分辨析其发展失衡症结,更全面、更系统地把握其潜在动力和可行方向,为政策制定提供更有针对性的依据,同时这也为加快形成新质生产力和健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制提供了更为明确的方向和基础。文章基于省域面板数据采用熵值法、泰尔指数和莫兰指数等方法分析中国各省域的新质生产力发展潜力和时空差异,并提出相应的发展战略着力点。研究发现:中国各省域新质生产力发展潜力呈现波动上升的发展趋势,但各省域间存在显著差距;各省域间的空间不平衡程度在逐年下降,呈现较强的区域收敛性;各省域间已出现相互联动,高值地区带动地区发展的态势;未来应围绕因地制宜提升新质生产力发展潜力、加速推进多核驱动的发展空间格局和构建多维协同的合作机制这三个战略着力点,形成作用合力加速新质生产力发展潜力的提升。研究结论为实现全国“一盘棋”战略布局、制定因地制宜的差异化发展政策、科学合理优化区域协同和高质量发展提供重要参考。

    Abstract:

    The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the Resolution on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization, which calls for improving the institutions and mechanisms for fostering new quality productive forces in line with local conditions, and made comprehensive arrangements for the development of new productive forces. By measuring the development potential of the new productive forces, we can fully identify the crux of their development imbalance, grasp their potential driving forces and feasible directions more comprehensively and systematically, and provide a more targeted basis for policy formulation. Based on provincial panel data, this paper analyzes the development potential of new quality productive forces, and its temporal-spatial differences in different provinces of China using the entropy method, Theil index and Moran index, and puts forward the corresponding development strategy focus. The study finds that: 1) The development potential of new quality productive forces in the provinces and regions shows a fluctuating and rising development trend, but there are significant gaps between regions. 2) The spatial imbalance between provinces and regions is decreasing year by year, showing a strong regional convergence. 3) There has been an interconnectedness between provinces and regions, with high-value regions driving the development of the regions. 4) In the future, we should focus on three strategic aspects: improving the development potential of new quality productive forces in line with local conditions, accelerating the development spatial pattern driven by multi-core, and building a multi-dimensional collaborative cooperation mechanism, so as to form a joint force to improve the development potential of new quality productive forces. This study provides important reference for the strategic concept of coordinating all the activities of the nation like moves in a chess game, the formulation of differentiated development policies tailored to local conditions, and the scientific and rational optimization of regional synergy and high-quality development.

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冉戎,花磊,陈烨靖,夏艺嘉.新质生产力发展潜力测度、时空差异及战略着力点研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,31(4):16-30. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2024.10.002

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-15
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