中国制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析
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作者单位:

湖南工业大学 商学院,湖南 株洲 412000

作者简介:

刘奎兵,湖南工业大学商学院讲师,硕士研究生导师,Email: 657467121@qq.com
王欢芳(通信作者),湖南工业大学商学院教授, Email: 13077029@qq.com
傅贻忙,湖南工业大学商学院副教授。

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中图分类号:

F424

基金项目:

湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题“‘三高四新’战略下数字赋能湖南省先进制造业高质量发展模式与对策研究”(XSP22YBZ034);湖南省自然科学基金项目“数字经济推动产业链现代化水平提升的机理、实证与路径”(2023JJ30219);湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目“新发展格局下湖南省产业链现代化水平测度及提升研究”(22A0421);湖南省教育厅科学研究优秀青年项目“湖南省制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析”(23B0570)


Measurement and dynamic evolution analysis of the modernization level of the industrial chain in China’s manufacturing industry
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Affiliation:

College of Business, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412000, P. R. China

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    摘要:

    当前,全球产业链正处于加速调整和重塑阶段,我国产业链的安全和稳定面临重大挑战,提升产业链现代化水平将成为推动实体经济高质量发展的关键手段,同时也是加快发展中国式现代化产业体系的紧迫要求。在全球市场加速变化的影响下,制造业已成为新发展格局下实现产业链现代化的重要领域,提升制造业产业链现代化水平以及推动制造业高质量发展对于我国全面建设现代化强国具有重要的战略意义。通过对制造业产业链现代化发展的时空演变和空间关联进行深入剖析,不仅可以为我国构建高质量现代化产业体系提供参考借鉴,也可为实现制造业产业链现代化区域协调发展提供可行性建议。基于此,文章从产业链创新性、产业链安全性、产业链高端化、产业链绿色化四个维度构建中国制造业产业链现代化综合指标体系,使用熵值法对制造业产业链现代化水平进行测度,并采用Dagum基尼系数和局部莫兰指数分析全国制造业产业链现代化水平的区域差异,采用Kernel密度估计和Markov转移概率矩阵分析制造业产业链现代化发展水平的演进趋势,以观察其动态演进和稳态分布特征。研究结果表明:第一,我国制造业产业链现代化发展目前仍处于中低水平,并且在空间上呈现出“东高西低”的分布特征,东部地区存在追赶效应,而西部地区制造业产业链现代化的潜力有待进一步挖掘。第二,总体看,我国制造业产业链现代化水平的区域差异呈现下降趋势,各省份制造业产业链现代化水平的差距正在缓慢缩小,空间集聚特征有减弱趋势。第三,我国制造业产业链现代化水平正在不断提升,但在一定程度上存在“中等陷阱”和“返降”现象,且西部省份和部分东北省份长期处于低水平阶段,存在较大的提升空间。显然,这些研究结论对于我国制造业产业链现代化在当前供需不平衡不匹配、预期转弱的大背景下,思考如何根据自身发展实际实现我国制造业产业链现代化区域协调发展,提升我国制造业产业链现代化水平具有重要的参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Currently, the global industrial chain is undergoing accelerated adjustment and reshaping. The security and stability of China’s industrial chain face significant challenges. Enhancing the level of industrial chain modernization will become a key means to promote the high-quality development of the real economy and an urgent requirement to accelerate the development of a Chinese-style modern industrial system. Under the influence of the accelerating changes in the global market, the manufacturing industry has become an important area for achieving industrial chain modernization in the new development pattern. Enhancing modernization level of the industrial chain and promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry are of strategic significance for comprehensively building a modern powerful country. An in-depth analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution and spatial correlations of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain can not only provide reference for constructing a high-quality modern industrial system in China but also provide feasible suggestions for achieving coordinated regional development of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain. Based on this, this article constructs a comprehensive index system for the modernization of China’s manufacturing industry chain from four dimensions: innovation, security, high-end, and greenness. The entropy method is used to measure the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain, and the Dagum Gini coefficient and local Moran index are used to analyze regional differences in the modernization level of the manufacturing industry chain nationwide. The Kernel density estimation and Markov transition probability matrix are used to analyze the evolutionary trend of the development level of the manufacturing industry chain modernization in order to observe its dynamic evolution and steady-state distribution characteristics. The research results show that: First, the modernization of China’s manufacturing industry chain is still at a medium-low level and presents an east high and west low distribution pattern in space. There is a catch-up effect in the eastern region, while the potential in the western region needs to be further explored. Second, overall, the regional differences in modernization level of manufacturing industry chain in China are decreasing, and the gap among provinces is slowly narrowing, with a weakening trend in spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the modernization level of manufacturing industry chain in China is constantly improving, but there is a certain degree of middle-income trap and backslide phenomenon. Western provinces and some northeastern provinces have long been at a low level, with significant room for improvement. Obviously, these research conclusions have important reference value for improving the modernization level of manufacturing industry chain. Specifically, considering the current background of supply and demand imbalances and weakening expectations, they provide insights into how to achieve regional coordinated development of the modernization of manufacturing industry chain in China.

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刘奎兵,彭娟,王欢芳,傅贻忙.中国制造业产业链现代化水平测度及动态演变分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2025,31(4):63-75. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2024.12.001

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-15
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