中国数字经济与乡村振兴协同发展的时空差异及其演变趋势
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作者单位:

1.石河子大学,师范学院,新疆 石河子 832003;2.石河子大学,经济与管理学院,新疆 石河子 832003

作者简介:

苏荟,石河子大学师范学院教授,硕士研究生导师,Email:306667259@qq.com。

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中图分类号:

F49;F323

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重点项目“稳疆兴疆视角下国家通用语言普及教育促进南疆劳动力转移就业的机制和路径研究”(22AMZ011)


Spatial and temporal differences in the coordinated development of digital economy and rural revitalization in China and their evolutionary trends
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Affiliation:

1.Normal School, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, P.R.China;2.School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, P.R.China

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    摘要:

    推动数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展是实现高质量发展的重要路径,对于探寻我国中、东、西部地区新发展路径具有重要意义。研究基于2012—2020年省域数据,采用熵值法建立数字经济与乡村全面振兴指标评价体系,通过耦合协调模型测度我国数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展水平,利用Dagum基尼系数分解和核密度分析对我国及东中西部地区协同发展的区域性与时序性差异以及演变形态进行分析,采用马尔科夫链模型探讨不同空间滞后条件下我国及东中西部地区数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展演进趋势并作出预测。结果表明:首先,全国及各地区数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展程度在时序上呈现稳步增长态势;空间上呈现“东高西低”和“相似集聚”的基本格局。其次,从全国尺度看,我国数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展水平虽呈现非均衡状态,但总体差异呈现缩小态势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源;从区域尺度看,数字经济与乡村全面振兴耦合协调度差异排序依次为东部地区各省份间差异高于西部地区和中部地区。再次,我国数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展水平逐步提升,东部地区内部省份协同发展水平差异较大,存在极化现象递减;中部地区整体协同发展水平差距在持续缩小,但与东部地区相比差距仍较大;西部地区数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展水平比较均衡,但仍较落后,且多极分化现象呈现增强趋势。最后,我国数字经济与乡村全面振兴协同发展呈现中高水平向高水平转移的趋势;东部地区在良好的协同发展基础上发挥既有优势,在三年后大概率会转移至高水平,反之会抑制其发展;中部地区内部不同省份协同发展水平在未来三年中向高水平收敛,并呈现出明显的“在提升中趋同”的演变特征;而西部地区两系统的协同程度未来三年里随着时间跨度延长不断降低且持续表现出下降趋势。据此,提出如下建议:贯彻落实国家政策,巩固发展成果稳中求进;施行因地制宜方针,打造区域协调发展优势;实施差异化发展战略,构建区域交流学习机制。

    Abstract:

    Promoting the synergistic development of digital economy and rural revitalization in all respects is an important path to high-quality development, and it is of great significance to explore the new development path in the central, eastern and western regions of China. Based on provincial data from 2012 to 2020, the study adopts the entropy value method to establish an evaluation system of indicators for digital economy and rural revitalization, measures the synergistic development level of China’s digital economy and rural revitalization through the coupling and coordination model, analyzes the regional and temporal differences in synergistic development as well as the evolution of the synergistic development in China and the east, central and west regions by using the Dagum’s Gini coefficient decomposition and kernel density analysis, and uses the Markov chain model to explore the evolutionary trend of the synergistic development of digital economy on rural revitalization in China and the eastern, middle and western regions under different spatial lag conditions and make predictions. The results show that: 1) the degree of synergistic development of digital economy and rural revitalization in China and various regions shows a steady increase in time series; and spatially, it shows a basic pattern of high in the east and low in the west and similar agglomeration. 2) From the national scale, although the level of synergistic development of China’s digital economy and rural revitalization is unbalanced, the overall difference shows a shrinking trend, and the inter-regional difference is the main source of the overall difference. From the regional scale, the order of differences in the degree of coupling and coordination between the digital economy and rural revitalization is that the inter-provincial (municipal) differences in the eastern region are higher than those in the western and central regions. 3) The level of synergistic development of China’s digital economy and rural revitalization has been steadily rising. Disparities in this development level among provinces within the eastern region remain notable, with a diminishing polarization effect; the overall gap in the development level across the central region has been shrinking continuously, yet the gap with the eastern region is still substantial; the western region sees a relatively balanced level of synergistic development, but the overall development remains underdeveloped, and a trend of growing multi-polarization has emerged. 4) The synergistic development of China’s digital economy and rural revitalization is trending upward from a medium-high level to a high level; the eastern region, based on good synergistic development and giving full play to its existing advantages, is likely to transfer to a high level after three years, and vice versa will inhibit its development; the level of synergistic development of different provinces within the central region will converge to a higher level in the next three years, showing the obvious evolution of convergence in improvement; while the degree of synergistic development in the western region will decrease with the prolongation of the time span in the next three years, and will continue to show a downward trend. Accordingly, the following recommendations are made: first, implement national policies to consolidate the development gains and seek progress while maintaining stability; second, implement a localized approach to create advantages in coordinated regional development; and third, implement a differentiated development strategy and build a mechanism for regional exchanges and learning.

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苏荟,任梦珂,时晓青.中国数字经济与乡村振兴协同发展的时空差异及其演变趋势[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2026,32(1):77-94. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2024.03.004

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-02
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