新发展理念视角下的人口综合红利:特征、逻辑与路径
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作者单位:

1.莆田学院 马克思主义学院,福建 莆田 351100;2.中国人民大学 应用经济学院,北京 100872

作者简介:

王小玺,莆田学院马克思主义学院副教授,硕士研究生导师
张耀军(通信作者),中国人民大学应用经济学院教授,博士研究生导师,Email:zhyaojunruc@126.com。

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中图分类号:

C924.2;D616

基金项目:

福建省社会科学基金项目“经济增长质量视角下的多维人口结构红利研究”(FJ2023MGCA037);莆田学院引进人才科研启动项目“高质量发展视角下新型人口红利的理论构建与实现路径研究”(2023010)


Comprehensive demographic dividend from the perspective of the new development philosophy: Characteristics, logic, and path
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Marxism, Putian University, Putian 351100, P.R.China;2.School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, P.R.China

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    摘要:

    在人口负增长的时代背景下,正确认识人口红利问题是准确把握新时代我国人口与经济关系的重要前提,创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的新发展理念既是引领高质量发展的指导原则,也是审视人口综合红利的全新视角。从内涵特征看,新时代的人口综合红利理论是在发展基础、核心理念和价值追求等方面对传统人口红利理论的延伸和拓展,立足于我国新的历史方位和发展进程,以人口数量、结构、素质、分布等人口条件为基础,以新发展理念为导向,通过政策措施的适应性调整从而培育、巩固和收获人口优势,推动人口与经济系统内部均衡和外部协调,为推动实现人口与经济高质量发展提供坚实的人口基础和支撑,其基础是“人口”,关键是“综合”,核心在“红利”,具有系统性、阶段性、统一性的特征。从内在逻辑看,人口的总量规模、年龄结构、综合素质、空间分布等是人口综合红利的重要组成部分,尽管当前依然存在人口综合红利释放的现实阻碍,但应立足于人口与经济的双向互动关系,利用人口现有优势和人口转变机遇,充分发挥人口因素在助推创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享发展中的积极作用。在中国式现代化进程中,既要立足当下人口负增长的现实,充分挖掘和利用现有人口条件,也要放眼未来人口发展趋势,积极挖掘、培育人口结构优化红利、人口素质提升红利和人口合理分布红利,以相关政策制度的调整完善为路径,引导人口发展符合创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的理念需求,积极回应人口发展的趋势性特征和高质量发展的目标任务,通过进一步完善生育养老政策、推进教育强国建设、优化城镇格局体系,以人口与经济高质量发展支撑中国式现代化。

    Abstract:

    In the face of negative population growth, correctly understanding the issue of demographic dividend is an important prerequisite for accurately grasping the relationship between China’s population and economy in the new era. The concept of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development is not only a guiding principle for leading high-quality development, but also a novel perspective for examining the comprehensive demographic dividend. From the perspective of its connotation and characteristics, the comprehensive demographic dividend in the new era is an extension and expansion of the traditional demographic dividend theory in terms of development foundation, core concepts and value pursuit. It is based on China’s new historical orientation and development process, takes population conditions such as size, structure, quality and distribution as the foundation, and guided by the new development philosophy. Through adaptive adjustment of policies and measures, the demographic advantages can be cultivated, consolidated and reaped, promoting the internal balance and external coordination of the population and economic system, and laying a solid demographic foundation for high-quality development. The concept of comprehensive demographic dividend is systematic, phased and unified, and its foundation is population, the key is comprehensiveness, and the core is dividends. From internal logic, the total size, age structure, comprehensive quality, and spatial distribution of the population are important components of the comprehensive demographic dividend. Although there are still practical obstacles to the release of demographic advantages, we can fully leverage the positive role of population factors in promoting high-quality development by taking advantage of the existing demographic conditions and opportunities of demographic transformation based on the interactive relationship between population and economy. In the process of Chinese modernization, we should not only realize the current reality of negative population growth and fully tap and utilize the existing demographic conditions, but also look to the future trends of population development, and actively explore and cultivate the demographic advantages of structure optimization, quality improvement and reasonable distribution. We should take the adjustment and improvement of relevant policies and systems as the path to guide population development to conform to the demands of the new development philosophy, so as to actively respond to the trend characteristics of population development and the goals and tasks of high-quality development. By further improving policies on childbirth and elderly care, promoting the construction of a strong educational system, and optimizing the urban pattern system, high-quality development of population and economy can be realized and provide strong support for Chinese modernization.

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王小玺,郑澜,张耀军.新发展理念视角下的人口综合红利:特征、逻辑与路径[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2026,32(2):57-69. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2026.03.003

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-27
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