投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平测度与时空演化特征
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

1.中共江苏省委党校 经济学教研部,江苏 南京 210009;2.河北省重点高端智库“河北省公共政策评估研究中心” ,河北 秦皇岛 066044;3.云南大学 工商管理与旅游管理学院,云南 昆明 650500

作者简介:

徐政,博士,中共江苏省委党校经济学教研部讲师,河北省重点高端智库“河北省公共政策评估研究中心”研究员
施雄天(通信作者),云南大学工商管理与旅游管理学院博士研究生,Email:1486745422@qq.com。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

F124;F204

基金项目:

江苏省社会科学基金项目“ 新质生产力对江苏降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展的影响效应研究” (25EYC012)


Measurement and spatiotemporal evolution of the cose integration level between investment in goods and investment in people
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Department of Economics, Party School of Jiangsu Provincial Committee of CPC, Nanjing 210009, P. R. China;2.Hebei Province Key High-End Think Tank “Hebei Public Policy Evaluation and Research Center”, Qinhuangdao 066044, P. R. China;3.School of Business Administration and Tourism Management, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, P. R. China

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    步入“十五五”时期,我国社会主义现代化建设正处于爬坡过坎、攻坚克难的关键阶段。传统单纯依赖物质资本积累的粗放增长模式已难以支撑高质量发展需求,如何实现投资于物和投资于人紧密结合进而激发新质生产力并提升全要素生产率,成为亟须破解的核心命题。文章构建多层次指标体系,投资于物水平主要包括数智基础投资、生态环保投资、实体经济投资三个维度,投资于人水平主要包括教育育人投资、健康护人投资、就业用人投资、社保托人投资四个维度,采用熵权法进行测度,并利用耦合协调度模型测度投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平。以2013—2023年我国284个地级市面板数据为样本,结合Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、时空马尔科夫链和收敛性模型等,系统剖析投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平的区域差异和时空演化特征。结果显示投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平呈持续上升趋势,投资于人水平稳步递增成为主要驱动力,而投资于物水平后期增速放缓。区域差异主要来源于超变密度基尼系数,并通过泰尔指数分解进一步分析,发现省际间差异是紧密结合水平区域差异的主要原因。紧密结合水平在区域间具有显著的正向空间相关性,形成核心—外围结构,并展现出滞后效应。通过马尔科夫链分析,投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平的状态路径具有较强的依赖性,低水平地区向高水平跃迁的概率逐步上升,而高水平地区则表现出较强的锁定效应。收敛性分析表明,虽然各区域投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平呈现σ收敛特征,但未能完全同步收敛。空间β收敛性分析表明,投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平同时存在绝对和条件β收敛,东部地区的收敛速度最快,中部地区最慢,在加入控制变量后,整体收敛速度有所减缓。基于此,文章提出加强区域协调、推动“人—物”协同发展机制、促进跨区域协同以及优化收敛路径等政策建议,以进一步提高投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平。

    Abstract:

    As China enters the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, its socialist modernization drive has reached a critical stage of surmounting major obstacles and tackling tough challenges. The traditional extensive growth model, which relies solely on material capital accumulation, can no longer meet the demands of high-quality development. How to achieve the close integration between investment in goods and investment in people, thereby stimulating new quality productive forces and enhancing total factor productivity, has become a core proposition that urgently needs to be addressed. This paper constructs a multi-level indicator system. The investment-in-goods level primarily comprises three dimensions: digital-intelligent infrastructure investment, ecological and environmental protection investment, and real economy investment. The investment-in-people level mainly consists of four dimensions: education and talent cultivation investment, health protection investment, employment and job utilization investment, and social security support investment. The entropy weight method is employed for measurement, and the coupling coordination degree model is applied to evaluate the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people. Using panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to 2023 as the sample, and incorporating models such as the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, spatiotemporal Markov chain, and convergence models, this study systematically examines the regional disparities and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people. The results indicate that the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people exhibits a sustained upward trend, with the steady increase in the investment-in-people level serving as the primary driving force, while the growth rate of the investment-in-goods level has slowed in the later period. Regional differences mainly originate from changes in the transvariation density of the Gini coefficient. Further decomposition using the Theil index reveals that inter-provincial differences constitute the main source of regional disparities in the close integration level. The close integration level demonstrates significant positive spatial correlation across regions, forming a core-periphery structure and exhibiting lag effects. Markov chain analysis shows that the state transition paths of the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people exhibit strong path dependence. The probability of low-level regions transitioning upward to higher levels has gradually increased, while high-level regions display a pronounced locking effect. Convergence analysis reveals that although the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people displays σ-convergence characteristics across regions, it has not achieved fully synchronized convergence. Spatial β-convergence analysis indicates the existence of both absolute and conditional β-convergence. The eastern region exhibits the fastest convergence speed, while the central region is the slowest. After incorporating control variables, the overall convergence speed slightly decreases. Based on these findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations such as strengthening regional coordination, promoting the synergistic "people-goods" development mechanism, facilitating cross-regional collaboration, and optimizing convergence pathways, so as to further elevate the close integration level between investment in goods and investment in people.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

徐政,施雄天.投资于物和投资于人紧密结合水平测度与时空演化特征[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2026,32(2):117-137. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. zs.2026.02.003

复制
分享
相关视频

文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-27
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码