珠三角城市住宅价格空间传导与趋同研究
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国家自然科学基金项目“房价驱动社会福利聚集与扩散的演化机理及调控绩效研究”(70973047)


The Spatial Diffusion and Convergence of Urban Housing Price in the Pearl River Delta
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    摘要:

    以珠三角9个城市2001Q1-2010Q4住宅价格的季度数据,运用Johansen协整关系检验、多变量Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和面板数据单位根检验探索了珠三角城市住宅价格的空间传导关系和价格趋同性。结果表明,珠三角城市住宅价格波动具有长期稳定的关系,在“深—莞—惠”、“广—佛—肇”和“珠—中—江”三个次级区域的住宅市场中,深圳、广州、珠海三个“核心城市”对其次级区域内的其他城市在空间上产生价格传导,同时,“深—莞—惠”中的深圳市住宅价格在空间上向“广—佛—肇”和“珠—中—江”传导。进一步检验发现,珠三角城市住宅价格存在以广州、深圳、珠海为基准的价格趋同现象。研究结论对政府实施差异化策略调控区域性住宅市场具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    The purpose of this paper is to explore the spatial diffusion and convergence of urban housing price by using the housing price data of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta over the period 2001Q1 to 2010Q4. The Cointegration Test, Multivariable Granger Causality Test, Generalized Impulse Response Function and Panel Data Unit Root Test were employed. The results show that the regional housing prices in the Pearl River Delta have a tendency towards stable long-run relationships, the housing prices of Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Zhuhai, the “Pivotal Cities” of the three sub-regional housing market in “Shen-Guan-Hui”, diffuse to other cities within own sub-regional market, while the housing price of Shenzhen diffuses to the sub-regional market in “Guang-Fo-Zhao” and “Zhu-Zhong-Jiang”. The further investigation indicates that the nine cities of Pearl River Delta exhibit regional housing price convergence based on the Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai. The findings can help government to formulate differentiate intervention strategies as well as regulate the regional housing market.

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李进涛,李红波.珠三角城市住宅价格空间传导与趋同研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2011,17(6):17-23.

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  • 收稿日期:2011-03-26
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