基于VAR模型的次贷危机与中国八大行业收盘价波动的传染效应及其检验
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VAR Model Based on Sub-loan Crisis and the Closing Price of China’s Eight Major Sectors of the Contagion Effect of Fluctuations in Test
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    摘要:

    以美国次贷危机为背景,选取中国国内八大行业,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、Granger因果检验、 脉冲响应函数(IRF)等技术,分析了危机前后中国八大行业股市收盘价波动性之间的因果关系变化,讨论了被传染行业对危机发源行业的冲击响应及其行业之间的传染效应。结果表明:(1)在危机前的平稳期中国八大行业收盘价的波动并不存在明显的因果关系;(2)危机期间钢铁行业收盘价的波动对大多数行业收盘价的波动都有单向因果关系,与少数行业收盘价的波动有双向因果关系。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, sub-loan crisis in the United States as the background, the authors select 8 of China’s domestic industries, use of vector autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test, impulse response function (IRF) and other technologies, to analyze China’s eight major industry crisis in the stock market before and after the closing price volatility causal relationship between changes in the industry to discuss the crisis transmition originated in response to the impact of the industry and its contagion effect between sectors. The results show that: 1) In the pre-crisis period of a smooth closing price of China’s eight major fluctuations in the industry there is no clear causal relationship; 2)Crisis in the steel industry during the closing price in most sectors of the fluctuations of the closing price fluctuations has a one-way causal relationship, with a small number of businesses closing price fluctuations in two-way causal relationship.

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傅强,汪俊生.基于VAR模型的次贷危机与中国八大行业收盘价波动的传染效应及其检验[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2011,17(6):30-38.

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  • 收稿日期:2010-11-23
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