基于时变Copula的La-VaR测度研究
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国家自然科学基金项目“基于复杂网络的银行间传染风险及其演化模型研究”(71071034);江苏大学高级技术人才科研启动基金项目(12JDG130)


Measurement of Liquidity-adjusted VaR Based on Time-varying Copula
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    摘要:

    目前关于流动性调整的市场风险测度研究,主要是静态模型。针对此,文章提出经流动性风险调整的市场风险动态测度的时变Copula方法。该方法使用连接函数构建流动性风险和市场风险的联合分布,能够兼顾这两种风险的非正态特征和它们之间的动态相关结构。基于该方法度量了中国股市经流动性调整的市场风险La-VaR,Kupiec检验表明,基于时变Copula模型预测La-VaR的效果优于基于常相关Copula模型的预测效果,并且时变T-Copula模型优于时变N-Copula模型。

    Abstract:

    The research on liquidity-adjusted market risk is mainly based on static model at now. In this paper, the method of dynamic measurement of liquidity-adjusted market risk is proposed which is based on time-varying Copula. Time-varying Copula function is used to construct the joint distribution of liquidity risk and market risk, which can give attention to both non-normality of the two risks and their dynamic dependency. The liquidity-adjusted market risk La-VaR of Chinese stock market is calculated. The Kupiec test shows that, the time-varying Copula is better than constant correlation Copula in the aspect of forecasting the value of La-VaR, and the time-varying T-Copula is better than the time-varying Normal-Copula.

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江红莉,何建敏,胡小平.基于时变Copula的La-VaR测度研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2013,19(3):27-32. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831.2013.03.005

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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-05-17
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