中国人口分布的时空演化研究:直面社会与经济双重困扰
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国家社会科学基金项目“城乡、区域发展不平衡对城市化的影响及对策研究”(12CJL041);“开放经济条件下中国经济预警系统设计及平衡增长路径选择”(10CJL036);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“协调与共富发展目标下的区域城市化联动机制研究”(12YJC790053)


A Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Chinese Population Distribution: Facing the Social and Economic Perplexity
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    摘要:

    人口是建立社会与经济之间联系的中介变量,人口空间分布又是全球性问题。当代中国,移民作为城市化的结果,其受社会经济发展水平决定;在人口、经济和社会互动发展过程中,城市化则是人口城乡和区域空间分布演变的主要内容。在时间层面上,社会经济发展模式和演化内生于人口数量和结构转变;在空间视阈下,人口地域分布适宜性包括城乡和区域两方面内容。通过梳理相关文献,总结人口空间分布特征事实,发现时空演化规律具有重要的学术创新和实践指导价值。作为第一人口大国,谋求社会与经济稳定发展是解决人口问题的基础之基础,中国人口与发展再次行至十字路口,人口研究不能刻舟求剑;其不仅是重大学术性命题,更是社会、经济性实践难题。研究分析需要立足中国实情,贯穿全文的逻辑主线是人口转变和空间分布,主题是人口、社会和经济协调发展,目标是建构中国人口空间分布理论体系。

    Abstract:

    Population is the mediating variable to build the link between the society and economy while spatial distribution of population is a global issue. In contemporary China, migration, as a result of the urbanization, is determined by the level of socio-economic development. Urbanization is the main content of the evolution of the urban-rural and regional demographic distribution during the process of demographic, economic and social interaction. On the temporal level, the mode and evolution of socio-economic development is endogenous to the population and structural changes. On the spatial perspective, the suitability of regional demographic distribution includes both urban-rural and regional content. Through combing and concluding the literature, we believe that it is of high value for academic innovation and practice instruction to summarize the characteristics of demographic spatial distribution and to explore the pattern of spatiotemporal evolution. As the most populous country, China is striving for the economic and social stability to solve the population issue. China’s development has come to the crossroads, so population studies cannot disregard/ignore the changing circumstances. It is not only an important academic proposition, but also a conundrum of social and economic practice. Research and analysis should be based on China’s reality. The logic mainline through this paper is demographic transition and spatial distribution. The theme is the coordinated development of population, society and economy. The target is to construct a theoretical framework of spatial distribution of the Chinese population.

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周靖祥.中国人口分布的时空演化研究:直面社会与经济双重困扰[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2014,20(1):1-17. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831.2014.01.001

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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-01-07
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