房价波动、收入水平与消费支出
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重庆市教委科技项目


House Price Fluctuation, Income Level and Consumer Spending
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    摘要:

    房价波动对城镇居民消费的影响引起广泛关注。选取重庆市不同收入水平城镇居民的收入、消费面板数据,以及从重庆“一圈两翼”划分的区域消费差异进行比较,考察了房价波动对收入和消费的影响。引入反映宏观经济水平的人均GDP年度指数和储蓄额年度增长率作为控制变量,利用股票筹资额构造房屋销售价格的工具变量做实证研究。结果表明:房价波动下重庆市城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。提高居民收入水平、调整收入分配结构、加大民生工程投资,是增加消费支出的有效途径。

    Abstract:

    House price fluctuation on the influence of the urban consumption aroused widespread concern. Adopting the panel data about urban residents’ income on different levels in Chongqing and consumption panel data, this paper compares the regional consumption differences in districts divided according to the idea of “One Ring Two Wings” and thus examines the influences of house price fluctuation on income and consumption. Besides, the paper introduces annual index of GDP per capita which reflects the level of macroeconomic and annual growth rate of savings amount as control variables and carries on the investigation with stock financing amount as the instrumental variable of house selling price. The result shows that: there are inevitable cause-and-effect relationship between per capita disposable income and consumption spending under house price fluctuation and also significant consumption differences among urban residents on different income levels. Besides the rising of house price has the crowding-out effect on all urban residents while the house wealth effect is not effective; the disposable income of current period is the most important factor in determining real estate consumption. Hence, raising the income level of resident, adjusting income distribution structure, increasing the people’s livelihood engineering investment are effective ways to increase consumption spending.

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向为民,李娇.房价波动、收入水平与消费支出[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2014,20(1):50-55. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831.2014.01.007

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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-01-07
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