OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturing) upgrading is the inherent requirement for realizing China's industrial restructuring and economic quality enhancement. OEMs should make reasonable technological upgrading strategies to improve technology capacity. Technological change has the properties of path evolution. The existing technology in OEMs provides steady revenue while it has the risk of path "lock-in". The new technology will bring higher incremental value and establish a beachhead for future competition. However, the time for developing new technology and the relationship between new technology and the existing one determine the development of path evolution. Based on path dependence and path creation theory, this paper uses the method of evolutionary game to construct models, contributing to the practical application of path evolution and providing suggestions for OEM enterprises' upgrading. Specifically, this paper observes the development of path evolution under the potential or realistic risk of path "lock-in" of existing technology, as well as the complementary and contradictive relationship between new technology and existing technology.