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    基于偏离-份额法的长江经济带制造业发展类型演变特征与转/承态势分析
    刘莉君, 康佳妮, 刘友金
    湖南科技大学 商学院, 湖南 湘潭 411201
    摘要:
    科学把握长江经济带制造业发展状况以及沿线产业转移与承接态势,对于整体推进长江经济带高质量发展尤为重要。文章通过运用偏离-份额分析法,分别计算出长江经济带9省2市27个制造业细分行业2005-2010年以及2011-2015年的产业结构分量、竞争力分量及偏离分量,对27个制造业细分行业的发展类型进行判别并剖析其演变特征,从而把握沿线省市产业转移与承接态势,并提出相应的对策建议。研究表明:长江经济带下游2省1市制造业产业竞争力出现了不同程度的减弱,尤其是上海与浙江,传统制造业迫切需要产业转移;长江经济带中游4省制造业总体发展态势尚好,应加快实现从制造大省向制造强省的转变,且需要改变一味承接产业的态势,部分竞争力减弱的产业也需要转移;长江经济带上游3省1市制造业的竞争优势相对不足,其中,四川省制造业发展优势最不明显,而重庆、贵州、云南大部分制造业细分行业发展相对较好,成为承接长江经济带下游制造业转移的重要地区。
    关键词:  长江经济带  制造业  演变特征  产业转移  偏离-份额分析法
    DOI:10.11835/j.issn.1008-5831.jg.2019.09.007
    分类号:F127
    基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目"中国与‘一带一路’国家间产业转移的共生机理与模式创新研究"(18BLJ114);中国博士后科学基金第61批面上资助项目"产业集群式转移与区域土地利用:耦合机理与空间引导"(2017M612556);国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目"长株潭承接产业转移过程中土地集约利用的调查研究"(201810534021)
    Evolution characteristics of manufacturing industry and industrial transfer or undertaking trend in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on the shift-share analysis method
    LIU Lijun, KANG Jiani, LIU Youjin
    School of Business, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, P. R. China
    Abstract:
    It is known that understanding the development status of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt scientifically and the trend of industrial transfer or undertaking along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is very important for promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole. By using the shift-share analysis method,this paper computes respectively the industrial structure components,competitiveness components and deviation components of 27 manufacturing sub-sectors in the nine provinces and two cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2015. The development types of the 27 manufacturing industry subdivisions are discriminated and the evolution characteristics are analyzed so as to get the trend of the industry transfer-undertaking in the belt,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed. The results show that the manufacturing industry competitiveness of two provinces and one municipality directly under the Central Government in the lower reaches has weakened to a different degree,especially Shanghai and Zhejiang,so the traditional manufacturing industry needs industrial transfer urgently. The overall development trend of the manufacturing in the middle reaches is still good. However,it is necessary to speed up the transformation from big provinces to strong ones of manufacturing. It is necessary to change the industrial undertaking status and some industries with weakened competitiveness also need to be transferred. The competitive advantages of the manufacturing of three provinces and one municipality directly under the Central Government in the upper reaches are relatively insufficient. Among them,the manufacturing development advantage of Sichuan is the least obvious. While most of the manufacturing sub-sectors in Chongqing,Guizhou and Yunnan are relatively well developed,who become the important areas to undertake the transfer of manufacturing industry from the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
    Key words:  the Yangtze River Economic Belt  manufacturing industry  evolution characteristics  industrial transfer  the shift-share analysis method
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