科技创新和"一带一路"倡议联系紧密并日益影响着现代化经济体系的高质量和持续发展。然而，"一带一路"沿线区域仍面临着创新资源分配不均、创新成果转化不足、创新生态系统构建不完善和创新体制机制不够优化等发展困境，这制约着区域科技创新效率的总体提升，也在一定程度上影响"一带一路"倡议的深化发展。面对创新驱动战略的不断深入推进和"一带一路"持续向高质量发展，明确我国"一带一路"沿线省份科技创新整体的投入产出效率，探究影响"一带一路"沿线省份科技创新效率的环境因素，以及如何提升"一带一路"沿线省份科技创新效率，这些问题的分析与解决引起了实务界和学术界的广泛关注。对此，文章基于三阶段数据包络（DEA）模型，根据2012-2016面板数据，在充分考虑了创新成果转化的时滞效应条件下，探究了剔除外部环境影响后我国"一带一路"沿线17个省份的真实科技创新效率，同时利用Tobit模型检验了科技创新主体（高技术企业、政府）、劳动者素质、金融支持和创业水平、科技创新政策等因素对"一带一路"沿线省份科技创新效率的影响。研究结果表明，"一带一路"沿线省份的科技创新效率既具有有效性的一面，又存在不充分、不均衡和不稳定的一面。首先，"一带一路"沿线省份的科技创新综合效率具有空间差异性，东南、东北、西南和西北四大板块科技创新综合效率差异明显，整体上呈东高西低。其次，"一带一路"沿线省份的科技创新综合效率具有时间动态变化性，五年间综合效率总体上呈上升趋势，且四大板块之间综合效率的差距逐年减小。最后，经过Tobit回归模型对科技创新综合效率的影响分析表明，政府支持力度、劳动者素质和金融环境对科技创新效率具有正向影响，科研经费支出强度、"一带一路"倡议政策和创业水平对科技创新效率具有负向影响。据此，认为今后可以从合理调配科技创新资源、培育高质量创新生态系统、优化创新体制机制和完善科技创新政策体系等方面进一步完善和改进，从而有效提高"一带一路"沿线省市的科技创新效率。

Technological innovation and the "Belt and Road" initiative are closely linked and increasingly affect the high-quality and sustainable development of the modern economic system. However, the regions along the "Belt and Road" are still facing development difficulties such as uneven distribution of innovation resources, insufficient transformation of innovation results, imperfect construction of innovation ecosystems, and inadequate optimization of innovation systems and mechanisms. This restricts the improvement of regional scientific and technological innovation efficiency. To a certain extent, it affects the deepening development of the "Belt and Road" initiative. Facing the continuous deepening of the innovation-driven strategy and the continuous high-quality development of the "Belt and Road", clarifying the overall input and output efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in the provinces along the "Belt and Road", and exploring the factors that affect the efficiency of technological innovation in the provinces along the "Belt and Road" and how to improve the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in provinces along the "Belt and Road", the analysis and resolution of these problems have attracted widespread attention from the practitioner and scholar. In this context, based on the three-stage data envelopment (DEA) model, according to panel data from 2012 to 2016, and taking full account of the time lag effect of the transformation of innovation achievements, we explore the real scientific and technological innovation efficiency of 17 provinces along the "Belt and Road" after excluding the external environmental impact. And the Tobit model is used to test the impact of technological innovation entities (high-tech enterprises, governments), labor quality, financial support and entrepreneurial level, and technological innovation policy factors on the efficiency of technological innovation in provinces along the "Belt and Road". The research results show that the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in provinces along the "Belt and Road" is effective, but also inadequate, unbalanced and unstable. Firstly, the comprehensive efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in the provinces along the "Belt and Road" is spatially different. The comprehensive efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in the four major sectors of the Southeast, Northeast, Southwest and Northwest has obvious differences, and the overall efficiency is higher in the east and lower in the west. Secondly, the comprehensive efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in provinces along the "Belt and Road" has dynamic changes over time. The overall efficiency has shown an upward trend in the past five years, and the gap in comprehensive efficiency between the four major sectors has decreased year by year. Finally, the analysis of the impact of the Tobit regression model on the overall efficiency of scientific and technological innovation shows that government support, labor quality, and financial environment have a positive impact on the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation. The intensity of scientific research expenditures, the "Belt and Road" initiative policy and the level of entrepreneurship have a negative impact on the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation. Based on this, we believe that it is reasonable to increase the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation in provinces along the "Belt and Road" in terms of rationally deploying scientific and technological innovation resources, cultivating high-quality innovation ecosystems, optimizing innovation systems and mechanisms, and improving scientific and technological innovation policy systems.

F273.1;F124.3

国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国中长期规划决策机制及方法论研究"（15AZD016）