"一带一盟"对接合作视阈下贸易便利化对出口持续时间的影响研究
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F752.62;F125;F116

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国家社会科学基金项目"我国产业结构调整中的'逆库兹涅茨化’问题"(18BJL054)


Research on the impact of trade facilitation on export duration from the perspective of cooperation between "the Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union"
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    摘要:

    巩固发展同欧亚经济联盟经贸合作关系对于促进"一带一路"建设具有重要意义。文章建立了比较全面的贸易便利化三级指标体系,贴近欧亚经济联盟成员国的实际情况;采用CEPII-BACI数据库2007—2016年HS6分位产品层面数据,首先运用生存分析方法估计中国与欧亚经济联盟及成员国出口贸易关系持续时间,其次运用Cloglog模型着重考察贸易便利化对双边出口贸易持续时间的影响;进一步引入贸易便利化与区域经济一体化的交互项,考察欧亚经济联盟启动后贸易便利化对出口持续时间的影响,研究发现:中国与欧亚经济联盟出口持续时间普遍较短,中位数只有3年,贸易关系持续时间段超过1年占比为63.7%,超过2年占比为50.5%,下降幅度为13.2%,第9年时仅剩29.6%,不足三分之一,中国与欧亚经济联盟成员国的贸易关系持续时间较短且失败概率具有负时间依赖性;贸易便利化会显著降低中国与欧亚经济联盟出口贸易关系失败的风险,提高双边贸易关系的生存率,在微观层面上说明贸易便利化水平提高,跨国企业在国际贸易活动中所支付的交易成本降低,提升利润空间从而延长企业出口持续时间;贸易便利化对不同类型产品出口持续时间的影响程度具有异质性,从回归系数大小来看,从重到轻依次为劳动密集型产品、资本密集型产品和初级产品。当贸易便利化水平变化,价值链较长、国内附加值较高的劳动密集型产品和资本密集型产品更易受到贸易便利化引致的"技术外溢"效应影响,而对于初级产品来说,农业政策的影响效果大于贸易便利化水平,因此相对于资本密集型产品和劳动密集型产品,贸易便利化水平对初级产品的影响相对较低;进一步通过交互项模型发现,欧亚经济联盟启动后产生关税同盟效应,成员国间形成零关税五国区域大市场,促进内部企业生产要素和资源配置的优化,内部要素流动更加自由便捷高效,成员国可以获取更多的规模经济效益,同时促使中国出口商品更加快捷高效地向欧亚经济联盟内其他成员国转移,增加了中国企业出口意愿进而提升了贸易便利化对出口持续时间的促进作用。文章的研究凸显了贸易便利化提升出口持续时间的关键作用,对于"一带一路"背景下提升中国与欧亚经济联盟经贸合作水平具有一定的实践参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Consolidating and developing the economic and trade cooperation relationship with the Eurasian Economic Union is of great significance to the promotion of "the Belt and Road" construction. The article has established a relatively comprehensive three-level indicator trade facilitation system, which is close to the actual situation of the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Using the CEPII-BACI database 2007-2016 HS6 quantile product level data, firstly, the survival analysis method is used to estimate the duration of the export trade relationship between the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states. Secondly, the Cloglog model is used to investigate the impact of trade facilitation on the duration of the bilateral export trade relationship. The interaction of trade facilitation and regional economic integration is further introduced to investigate the impact of trade facilitation after the launch on the duration of exports. The study finds: 1) The duration of exports between China and the Eurasian Economic Union is generally short, with a median of only 3 years, and the proportion of trade relations lasting more than 1 year is 63.7%, accounting for 50.5% for more than two years, a decrease of 13.2%, and only 29.6% in the ninth year, which is less than one-third. Therefore, China’s trade relations with the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union last for a short period of time. The probability of failure is negatively time dependent. 2) Trade facilitation will significantly reduce the risk of failure in the export trade relationship between China and the Eurasian Economic Union and improve the survival rate of bilateral trade relations. At the micro level, it shows that the level of trade facilitation is improved, the transaction costs paid by multinational enterprises in international trade activities are reduced and the profit space is improved, so as to prolong the export duration of enterprises. 3) The impact of trade facilitation on the export duration of different types of products is heterogeneous. From the perspective of regression coefficient, the order from heavy to light is labor-intensive products, capital-intensive products and primary products. Because when the level of trade facilitation changes, labor-intensive products and capital-intensive products with long value chain and high domestic added value are more vulnerable to the "technology spillover" effect caused by trade facilitation. For primary products, the impact of agricultural policy is greater than the level of trade facilitation. Therefore, compared with capital intensive products and labor-intensive products, the level of trade facilitation has a relatively low impact on primary products. 4) Further through the interaction term model, it is found that after the launch of the Eurasian Economic Union, a customs union effect will be produced. The member states will form a five-country regional market with zero tariffs, which will promote the optimization of internal enterprise production factors and resource allocation, and the flow of internal factors will be freer and more convenient. Member states can obtain more economies of scale, and at the same time, promote the transfer of Chinese exports to other member states in the Eurasian Economic Union more quickly and efficiently, increase the willingness of Chinese enterprises to export, and increase the impact of trade facilitation on the duration of exports enhancement. The research in this article highlights the key role of trade facilitation in enhancing export trade relations, and has certain practical reference value for enhancing the level of economic and trade cooperation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union in the context of "the Belt and Road" construction.

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程显宏,李豫新,邹宗森."一带一盟"对接合作视阈下贸易便利化对出口持续时间的影响研究[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2022,28(2):38-52. DOI:10.11835/j. issn.1008-5831. jg.2021.03.003

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-25
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