Study on the time-varying characteristics of financial structure impact on industrial structure: Empirical test based on the SUR and TVPSS model
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F121.3;F832

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    Abstract:

    The relationship between financial structure and industrial structure has been a hot topic in academic circles. Based on the annual data of China from 1998 to 2017, this paper constructs the seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) to analyze the influence of financial structure on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure from the perspective of financial structure scale, efficiency and deepening and builds Time-varying Parameter State Space Model(TVPSS) to describe the dynamic impact of financial structure on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure. The empirical analysis results as follows:1) The scale of financial structure improves the rationalization level of industrial structure and promotes the upgrading of industrial structure. The efficiency of financial structure improves the rationalization level of industrial structure and inhibits the upgrading of industrial structure. The deepening of the financial structure reduces the rationalization level of the industrial structure and promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure.2) The impact of the scale, the efficiency, and the deepening of financial structure on the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure presents time-varying characteristics. The influence of financial structure on industrial structure lags behind that of industrial structure upgrading.3)The impact of financial structure on industrial structure presents a large fluctuation in the early stage and a relatively gentle state in the later stage, and the dynamic impact of some financial structure variables on industrial structure shows a "long tail" phenomenon. The current financial structure in China is no longer suitable for the current industrial structure, so it needs to adjust the financial structure to improve the level of rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure.

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李成刚,潘康,贾鸿业.金融结构对产业结构影响的时变特征研究——基于SUR和TVPSS模型的实证检验[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2021,27(6):29~45

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  • Received:
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  • Online: December 20,2021
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