净现值的计算有着广泛应用，现有方法中现金流量的计算大部分采用静态方法或期望值法，将未来现金流量视为具有一定概率分布、且概率随时间而转移的随机变量更为恰当，但对这方面的研究却鲜有介绍，通过对现有几种方法的介绍，结合马尔可夫方法的特征，给出了一种求分布概率不确定的未来现金净流量分布的动态方法－－马尔可夫法，从而得到净现值的一种新的动态计算方法，利用该方法对我国某一公路投资项目的未来现金流量进行了计算，结果显示该方法可行、有效。

NPV have been widely applied. A majority of the existing calculating methods of cash flow are the static method or the expectation method. It is more reasonable to regard future cash flow as random variable which has certain probability distribution, which shifts with time. But the research about it has been introduced rarely. Through introducing some kinds of existing methods and considering the feature of Markov method, a dynamic method which is used in solved the distributing of indeterminate feature cash flow is showed. So a new kind of dynamic calculation method about NPV is obtained. The method is applied in the calculation to future cash flow of the certain highway investment project of China. The result shows that this method is feasible, effective.

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