联想神经网络的风速序列预测分析
作者:
基金项目:

重庆市科委资助项目(cstc2013kjrc-qnrc40001,cstc2013jcyjA80013)。


Wind speed time series prediction based on associative network
Author:
  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献 [22]
  • |
  • 相似文献 [20]
  • | | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为了提高风速序列预测的可靠性,针对具有混沌特性的风速序列,构造了一种用于风速序列预测的联想网络。以风速序列的波动性作为相似性测度准则,构造联想网络的存储样本模式,根据存储模式中蕴含的关联信息完成网络的无监督学习,从而完成具有自相似性的风速序列的一步或多步预测分析。与传统前向型神经网络相比,该网络预测机理明确,预测结果唯一,且可一次给出多步预测结果。仿真实验结果表明,该网络的具有良好预测性能,适用于风速序列的动态预测。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the reliability of wind speed series prediction, a new associative network was constructed to predict the wind speed series with chaotic characteristics. Stored sample patterns were constructed according to the similarity measure of the volatile of the wind speed series. Utilizing the correlation information contained in the stored sample patterns, the network adopts an unsupervised learning algorithm to complete the weight training. One step or multi-step prediction of the wind speed series which have self-similarity can be completed by the associative network. Compared with the conventional forward neural network, the prediction mechanism of the associative prediction network is explicit, and the prediction result is uniqueness. The network can also give one step or multi-step prediction results simultaneously in once calculation. Simulation results show that the associative network has good prediction performance, and can be applied to predict dynamically the wind speed series.

    参考文献
    [1] 伍见军,王咏薇,丁源,等.风电场超短期风速预测方法对比[J].科学技术与工程,2013,13(11):2965-2969.Wu Jianjun,Wang Yongwei,Ding Yuan,et al.A comparison of very short term wind prediction by different methods[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2013,13(11):2965-2969.(in Chinese)
    [2] Dowell,J,Weiss,S,Infield,D.Kernel methods for short-term spatio-temporal wind prediction[C]//IEEE PES General Meeting.2015.
    [3] 孙国强,卫志农,翟玮星.基于RVM与ARMA误差校正的短期风速预测[J].电工技术学报,2012,27(8):187-193.Sun Guoqiang,Wei Zhinong,Zhai Weixing.Short term wind speed forecasting based on RVM and ARMA error correcting[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2012,27(8):187-193.(in Chinese)
    [4] 罗文,王莉娜.风场短期风速预测研究[J].电工技术学报,2011,26(7):68-74.LUO Wen,WANG Lina.Short-term wind speed forecasting for wind farm[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2011,26(7):68-74.(in Chinese)
    [5] 王媛媛,秦政,张超,等.基于自适应线性逻辑网络的风电功率预测方法性能评估与分析[J].可再生能源,2013,31(6):61-65.WANG Yuanyuan,QIN Zheng,ZHANG Chao,et al.Performance assessment and analysis of wind power forecasting method based on adaptive linear logic network[J].Renewable Energy Resources,2013,31(6):61-65.(in Chinese)
    [6] XIU Chunbo,WANG Tiantian,TIAN Meng,et al.Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation[J].Chaos Solitons&Fractals,2014,68:89-97.
    [7] 修春波,任晓,李艳晴,等.基于卡尔曼滤波的风速序列短期预测方法[J].电工技术学报,2014,29(2):253-259.XIU Chunbo,REN Xiao,LI Yanqing,et al.Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on kalman filtering fusion[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society.2014,29(2):253-259.(in Chinese)
    [8] Chitsaz H,Amjady N,Zareipour H.Wind power forecast using wavelet neural network trained by improved Clonal selection algorithm[J].Energy Conversion&Management,2015,89:588-598.
    [9] Liu H,Hong-qi Tian,Yan-fei Li.Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction[J],Applied Energy,2012,98(12):415-424.
    [10] Zhao H,Wu Q,Hu S,et al.Review of energy storage system for wind power integration support[J].Applied Energy,2015,137:545-553.
    [11] 武峰雨,乐秀璠,南东亮.相空间重构的极端学习机短期风速预测模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2013,25(1):136-141.WU Fengyu,LE Xiufan,NAN Dongliang.A short-term wind speed prediction model using phase-space reconstructed extreme learning machine[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2013,25(1):136-141.(in Chinese)
    [12] 高爽,冬雷,高阳,等.基于粗糙集理论的中长期风速预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(1):32-37.GAO Shuang,DONG Lei,GAO Yang,et al.Mid-long term wind speed prediction based on rough set theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(1):32-37.(in Chinese)
    [13] 甘敏,丁明,董学平.基于改进Mycielski方法的风速预测[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(4):1084-1088.GAN Min,DING Ming,DONG Xueping.Improved Mycielski approaeh for wind speed prediction[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practiee,2013,33(4):1084-1088.(in Chinese)
    [14] Xiu C B,Guo F H.Wind speed prediction by chaotic operator network based on Kalman Filter[J].Science China technological sciences,2013,56(5):1169-1176.
    [15] Dowell J,Pinson P.Very-Short-Term probabilistic wind power forecasts by sparse vector autoregression[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2015:1.
    [16] Papavasiliou A,Oren S S,Aravena I.Stochastic modeling of multi-area wind power production[J].2015:2616-2626.
    [17] Carpinone A,Giorgio M,Langella R,et al.Markov chain modeling for very-short-term wind power forecasting[J].Electric Power Systems Research,2015,122:152-158.
    [18] 陈妮亚,钱政,孟晓风,等.基于空间相关法的风电场风速多步预测模型[J].电工技术学报,2013,28(5):15-21.Chen Niya,Qian Zheng,Meng Xiaofeng,et al.Multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting model based on spatial correlation and support vector machine[J].Transactions of China electrotechnical society,2013,28(5):15-21.(in Chinese)
    [19] 刘新婷,修春波,张欣,等.基于混沌不稳定周期方法的风速时间序列预测[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(s1):78-81.LIU Xinting,XIU Chunbo,ZHANG Xin,et al.Prediction of wind speed series based on chaotic unstable period[J].Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition),2012,42(s1):78-81.(in Chinese)
    [20] Guo Z H,Zhao W G,Lu H Y,et al.Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model[J].Renewable Energy,2014,37(1):241-249.
    [21] Xu G W,Xiu C B,Wan Z K.Hysteretic chaotic operator network and its application in wind speed series prediction[J].Neurocomputing,2015,165:384-388.
    [22] 王富强,王东风,韩璞.基于混沌相空间重构与支持向量机的风速预测[J].太阳能学报,2012,33(8):1321-1326.WANG Fuqiang,WANG Dongfeng,HAN Pu.Wind speed prediction based on chaos phase space reconstruction and support vector machine[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2012,33(8):1321-1326.(in Chinese)
    引证文献
    网友评论
    网友评论
    分享到微博
    发 布
引用本文

杨雨浓,修春波.联想神经网络的风速序列预测分析[J].重庆大学学报,2016,39(4):139-146.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:1025
  • 下载次数: 1197
  • HTML阅读次数: 532
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 收稿日期:2016-01-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2016-08-04
文章二维码