P694
国家重点研发计划课题资助项目（2018YFC1505503）；国家级地质环境监测与预报资助项目（121201014000150003）。
基于地质灾害潜势度的危险度预测理论，预测2017年全国地质灾害总体灾情、灾害类型及空间分布特征。结果显示，2017年全国地质灾害发生数量为7 190起，主要集中在云南西北部及东北部、四川南部及东北部、贵州西北部及东部、重庆南部、广东北部局部、湖南西部及东南部、江西南部及福建西部地区等地区。通过与2017年实际灾害发生情况对比分析，灾害总数量和滑坡数量预测效果较好，误差在5%以内，潜在危险性极高（Ⅰ级）、高（Ⅱ级）区地质灾害发生密度较高，中（Ⅲ级）和低（Ⅳ级）区地质灾害发生密度低，与实际情况整体吻合程度较好，但极高区域（Ⅰ级）的判断有误，Ⅱ级区的发灾密度较Ⅰ级区高。地质灾害区域趋势预测结果可为政府部门提前制定防灾减灾相关措施工作提供决策支撑。
In this paper, trend forecasting of geo-hazards of China in 2017 was carried out based on the dangerous parameter of geo-hazard forecasting theory. The profile, type and spatial distribution characteristics were forecasted. The trend forecasting result showed that 7 190 geo-hazards would happen all over the country in 2017, primarily in northwestern and northeastern Yunnan, southern and northeastern Sichuan, northwestern and eastern Guizhou, southern Chongqing, part of northern Guangdong, western and southeastern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, and western Fujian, etc. Comparison with the actual situation of geo-hazards in 2017 indicates that the forecasting of total quantity and landslide quantity are highly acceptable with errors less than 5%. The incidence of geo-hazards is high in the areas with very high potential risk (LevelⅠ) or high potential risk (Level Ⅱ), and low in the areas with moderate potential risk (Level Ⅲ) or low potential risk (Level Ⅳ), proving that the forecasting is in good agreement with the the actual situation as a whole. But the forecasting in the areas (Level I) is not accurate enough because the geo-hazard incidence in the areas (LevelⅡ) is higher than that in the areas (Level I). The result of geo-hazard trend forecasting provides support and decision-making reference on disaster prevention and reduction for the government departments concerned.
温铭生,陈春利,徐为,方志伟,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域趋势预测理论方法与应用评估探讨[J].重庆大学学报,2019,42(10):82-91.
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