1.国网重庆市电力公司，重庆 400030;2.国网重庆市电力公司营销服务中心，重庆 401121;3.重庆国家应用;数学中心，重庆 401331;4.重庆师范大学 数学科学学院，重庆 401331;5.国网重庆市电力公司长寿供电分公司，重庆 401220;6.重庆大学 输变电装备技术全国重点实验室，重庆 400044
侯兴哲（1965—），男，教授级高级工程师，主要从事电测量技术研究，(Email)hhxz@cq.sgcc.com.cn。
颜伟，男，博士，教授，(E-mail)cquyanwei@cqu.edu.cn。
TM73
国家电网有限公司总部科技项目（5700-202227226A-1-1-ZN）。
1.State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company, Chongqing 400030, P. R. China;2.State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company Marketing Service Center, Chongqing, 401121, P. R. China;3.National Center for Applied Mathematics in Chongqing, Chongqing 401331, P. R. China;4.School of Mathematical Sciences, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, P. R. China;5.State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company Changshou Branch, Chongqing 401220, P. R. China;6.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment Technology & System Security and New, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, P. R. China
Supported by State Grid Headquarters Technology Project(5700-202227226A-1-1-ZN).
针对低压配网确定性日理论线损率计算难以支撑其波动范围的量化考核问题，提出一种低压配网日理论线损率的概率分析方法。首先，考虑低压配网三相四线接线实际，假设已知配变低压侧三相电压、分布式电源出力、负荷三相有功功率及无功功率的随机模型并进行模拟。考虑源荷相关性，采用等概率变换原则与秩相关结合的拉丁超立方技术抽样。基于蒙特卡洛模拟法，采用考虑三相不平衡的注入电流牛顿法计算潮流结果及日线损率的概率分布，为低压配网降损提供决策依据。最后，以实际低压配网衡山花园的实测数据证明该方法的有效性。
Accurately determining the daily theoretical line loss rate in low-voltage distribution networks is challenging, making it difficult to quantitatively assess its fluctuation range. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic analysis method for evaluating the daily theoretical line loss rate in low-voltage distribution networks. First, the actual three-phase four-wire connection of the low-voltage distribution network is considered, and it is assumed that the random models of three-phase voltage, distributed power output, and the three-phase active and reactive power of the distribution transformer on the low-voltage side are known and simulated. Then, source-load correlation is incorporated, and Latin hypercube sampling, combined with the equal probability transform principle and rank correlation, is employed. Finally, using the Monte Carlo simulation method, the probabilistic distribution of power flow and the daily theoretical line loss rate is calculated by the Newton injection current method, taking three-phase unbalance into account. This approach provides a decision-making basis for reducing losses in low voltage distribution networks. Experimental data from the Hengshan Garden low-voltage distribution network validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
侯兴哲,王思韡,苏宇,程瑛颖,陈文礼,陈飞宇,吴至友,黄浩川,何艺铭,颜伟.低压配网日理论线损率的概率分析方法[J].重庆大学学报,2025,48(3):27-37.
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