用于建筑能耗预测的多尺度可解释时序预测网络模型
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作者:
作者单位:

1.联勤保障部队工程大学,重庆 401331;2.中国人民解放军78156部队,重庆 400039;3.重庆设计集团 重庆市建筑科学研究院有限公司,重庆 400042

作者简介:

杨列娟(1984—),女,博士研究生,主要从事建筑能耗监测与预测方向的研究,(E-mail)yangliejuan@163.com。

通讯作者:

曹琦(1976—),男,教授,博士,博士生导师,(E-mail)roy1976@163.com。

中图分类号:

TM715

基金项目:

军队科研重大项目;军事类研究生资助课题重点项目。


Multi-scale interpretable temporal prediction network for building energy consumption forecasting
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Joint Logistic Support Force University of Engineering, Chongqing 401331, P. R. China;2.Unit 78156 of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Chongqing 400039, P. R. China;3.Chongqing Construction Science Research Institute Co., Ltd., Chongqing Design Group Co. Ltd., Chongqing 400042, P. R. China

Fund Project:

Supported by Major Scientific Research Projects of the Military and Key Projects for Military Graduate Students.

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    摘要:

    建筑能耗预测对于优化能源管理、降低运营成本、实现碳中和目标至关重要。为提高能耗预测精度和结果的可解释性,通过长短期时序网络(long short-term temporal networks,LSTM)和科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络(Kolmogorov-Arnold networks,KAN)协同优化,提出一种多尺度可解释时序预测网络模型(interpretable temporal prediction network,ITSFN)。该模型融合时序-环境特征解耦与动态注意力机制,通过显式分离时序数据的季节项、趋势项及残差项,构建结构化特征空间,采用门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)与多头注意力的并行架构实现多尺度特征建模。在夏热冬冷地区某高校教学楼能耗数据集上进行测试,结果表明ITSFN总能耗预测RMSE较LSTM降低13.9%,分项能耗预测RMSE较Transformer降低31.1%;ITSFN通过特征解耦将噪声抑制系数提升至0.89,在突变区域实现0.92的注意力局角度,较传统方法减少29.6%的过平滑现象,且通过量化特征贡献度呈现各分量权重演化规律,验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

    Abstract:

    Accurate forecasting of building energy consumption is crucial for optimizing energy management, reducing operational costs, and achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study proposes a multi-scale interpretable temporal prediction network model (ITSFN), which enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through the collaborative optimization of long short-term temporal (LSTM) networks and Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KAN). The model integrates temporal-environmental feature decoupling with a dynamic attention mechanism, explicitly decomposing time-series data into seasonal, trend, and residual components to construct a structured feature space. It employs a parallel architecture of gated recurrent units (GRU) and multi-head attention to model multi-scale features. Tested on an energy consumption dataset from a university building in a hot-summer/cold-winter region, ITSFN outperforms traditional models: it reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) of total energy consumption prediction by 13.9% compared to LSTM and decreases the RMSE of sub-item energy consumption prediction by 31.1% compared to Transformer. Additionally, ITSFN enhances the noise suppression coefficient to 0.89 through feature decoupling, achieves a local attention angle of 0.92 in mutation regions, and reduces over-smoothing by 29.6% compared to traditional methods. By quantifying feature contributions, the model reveals the evolutionary patterns of component weights, further validating its effectiveness and practical applicability.

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杨列娟,谭国鹏,曹琦,杨辉跃,周洋.用于建筑能耗预测的多尺度可解释时序预测网络模型[J].重庆大学学报,2026,49(4):26-36.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-21
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