针对低压配网确定性日理论线损率计算难以支撑其波动范围的量化考核问题,提出一种低压配网日理论线损率的概率分析方法。首先考虑低压配网三相四线接线实际,假设已知配变低压侧三相电压、分布式电源出力、负荷三相有功功率及无功功率的随机模型并进行模拟。接着考虑源荷相关性,采用等概率变换原则与秩相关结合的拉丁超立方技术抽样。最后基于蒙特卡洛模拟法,采用考虑三相不平衡的注入电流牛顿法计算潮流结果及日线损率的概率分布,为低压配网降损提供决策依据。并以实际低压配网衡山花园的实测数据证明该方法的有效性。

Aiming at the problem that the calculation of the deterministic daily theoretical line loss rate of low-voltage distribution network is difficult to support the quantitative assessment of its fluctuation range, a probabilistic analysis method of the daily theoretical line loss rate of low-voltage distribution network is proposed. Firstly, consider the actual three-phase four-wire connection of the low-voltage distribution network, and assumes that the random models of three-phase voltage, distributed power output, three-phase active power and reactive power of the distribution transformer at the low-voltage side are known and simulated. Then, Source charge correlation is considered, and the latin hypercube sampling combining the equal probability transform principle with rank correlation is adopted. Finally, based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the probabilistic distribution of the power flow and daily linear loss rate is calculated by the Newton injection current method considering the three-phase unbalance, which provides the decision basis for the low voltage distribution network loss reduction. The experimental data of Hengshan Garden in low-voltage distribution network prove the effectiveness of this method.

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