1.兰州交通大学 土木工程学院;2.中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司 电子计算技术研究所
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中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划实验室基础研究项目资金资助(L2023Z001)。
1.College of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University;2.Institute of Computing Technologies,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited
铺轨基地作为铁路工程重要的大型临时工程，其碳排放是铁路工程物化阶段不容忽视的碳排放来源。通过碳排放因子法建立铺轨基地全生命周期碳排放测算模型；然后提取铺轨基地碳排放特征作为影响因素，并通过特征重要度排序识别关键影响因素；最后通过可解释机器学习模型将关键影响因素对碳排放贡献可视化，剖析关键影响因素对碳排放的影响机理。结果表明：铺轨基地全生命周期碳排放总量为4825.134~15122.059t；铺轨基地建材生产阶段碳排放占比最高（72%-86%）；根据铺轨基地影响因素重要度排序结果，识别出5个关键影响因素分别为基地面积、地基处理方式、道路硬化方式、机械走行轨道长度和股道长度；通过SHAP概括图和依赖性散点图分析关键影响因素对碳排放产生的影响。研究结论可以为铁路工程铺轨基地碳减排相关研究提供理论依据。
As an important large-scale temporary project of railway engineering, the carbon emission of track-laying base is the source of carbon emission that cannot be ignored in the materialization stage of railway engineering. The carbon emission factor method was used to establish the carbon emission measurement model in the life cycle of railway track-laying base. Then, the carbon emission characteristics of track-laying base were extracted as influencing factors, and the key influencing factors were identified by feature importance ranking. Finally, the interpretable machine learning model was used to visualize the contribution of key influencing factors to carbon emissions, and analyze the impact mechanism of key influencing factors on carbon emissions. The results show that the total life cycle carbon emission of the track-laying base is 4825.134~15122.059t. The carbon emission ratio of building materials in the production stage of rail laying base was the highest (72%-86%). According to the ranking results of the importance of influencing factors of track laying base, the five key influencing factors are identified as base area, foundation treatment method, road hardening method, mechanical track length and stock track length. The influence of key factors on carbon emissions was analyzed by SHAP summary diagram and dependency scatter diagram. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the research on carbon emission reduction of railway track-laying base.
