洞库群施工与运营安全风险评价指标及模糊评价
作者:
作者单位:

1.中铁隧道集团二处有限公司;2.重庆大学煤矿灾害动力学与控制全国重点实验室

中图分类号:

TU94

基金项目:

重庆英才创新领军人才项目


Safety Risk Evaluation Indices and Fuzzy Evaluation Model for Construction and Operation of Cavern Group
Author:
Affiliation:

1.China Railway Tunnel Group Erchu Co Ltd,Yanjiao;2.State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control,Chongqing University

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    摘要:

    针对地下工程施工与运营安全问题,以某“818项目”复杂洞库群为研究背景,构建了“人员—物—管理—环境”4个方面的第一级评价指标体系,技术保障、人员素质、洞库群渗水漏水、安全检查、区域降雨量等15个第二级评价指标体系,提出了洞库群施工与运营的Ⅰ(不容许)、Ⅱ(不希望)、Ⅲ(可容许)、Ⅳ(可忽略)4个风险等级;基于模糊理论,建立了“818项目”洞库群运营安全二级模糊综合评价模型,人员、物、管理、环境4个指标的安全评价矩阵,结合施工与生产数据,利用AHP法获得了第一级、第二级的单因素安全评价矩阵和指标权重,并对“818项目”洞库群施工和运营风险进行了综合预测,等级评定值δ =2.3445,风险等级为Ⅳ级。评价表明,该项目发生风险的可能性较小。研究结论为复杂洞库群施工和运营安全提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the safety of construction and operation of underground engineering, taking the complex cavern group of a “818 project” as the research background, the first-level evaluation index system of “man-materials-management-environment”, and the second level evaluation index system of 15 aspects such as technical quality of inspectors Technical support , personnel quality , seepage and leakage of cavern group, disease remediation effect, safety inspection , rainfall, etc. were constructed. Four risk levels such as Ⅰ (inadmissible), Ⅱ (undesirable), Ⅲ (allowable), Ⅳ (negligible) for construction and operation of cavern group were put forward, and a two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the operation safety of the “818 project” cavern group was established. According to the fuzzy evaluation matrix of four indicators of man, materials, management and environment, combined with the construction and production data, the single-factor fuzzy evaluation matrix and indicator weights of the first and second levels were obtained by AHP method. and the construction and operation safety of “Project 818” cavern group were predicted. The grade evaluation value δ= 2.3445, the risk level is grade IV, that is, the risk is less likely to occur. The research conclusions provide a scientific basis for the construction and operation safety of the cavern group.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-08
  • 录用日期:2025-04-10
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