基于交通信息的短期充电设施使用情况预测
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1.国网上海市电力公司;2.复旦大学 智能机器人与先进制造创新学院

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国家电网有限公司科技项目资助(52094024002S)


Short-term urban charging facility utilization prediction methodwith traffic information
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1.State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company;2.College of intelligent robotics and advanced manufacturing, Fudan University,

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    摘要:

    针对城市新能源汽车快速增长导致区域充电桩使用压力加剧的问题,本文旨在实现多区域短期充电桩占用数量预测,为城市充电资源调度与优化提供支撑。构建融合交通信息的充电桩使用预测模型(TI-CFU),首先,基于多类型节点特征生成模块提取网格节点的交通和充电设施时刻特征,进一步,通过通道注意力机制细化关键交通模式与区域热点特征表达,最后,通过门控融合模块对交通特征与充电状态特征进行动态耦合,并采用预测层实现区域短期充电桩占用数量预测。在上海市真实交通与充电设施数据集上进行验证,实验结果表明TI-CFU在评价指标上最优,整体误差降低约7%-15%,在不同区域均具有高精度与稳定性。

    Abstract:

    To address the increasing regional pressure on charging facilities caused by the rapid growth of electric vehicles in cities, this study aims to realize short-term prediction of charging pile occupancy across multiple urban regions, thereby supporting urban charging resource scheduling and optimization. A traffic-informed charging facility utilization prediction model (TI-CFU) is developed. First, a multi-type node feature generation module is designed to extract temporal traffic features and charging facility states for each grid cell. Then, a channel attention mechanism is applied to refine key traffic patterns and highlight regional hotspot features. Finally, a gated fusion module dynamically integrates traffic features with charging status information, and a prediction layer is employed to estimate short-term charging facility utilization. The proposed model is evaluated using real traffic and charging facility datasets from Shanghai. Experimental results show that TI-CFU achieves the best performance among all comparison methods, reducing overall prediction error by approximately 7%–15%, and maintains high accuracy and stability across different urban regions.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-26
  • 录用日期:2026-03-09
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