电力系统可靠性评估的Monte-Carlo方法——系统状态及其转移过程的随机模拟
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    摘要:

    本文通过对运行状态及其转移过程的随机模拟来评估电力系统的可靠性。这便于分析运行中的各种故障与修复过程,也为统计电力系统故障频率和失负荷电量等可靠性指标创造了条件。在模拟方法上,本文首次应用条件数学期望和条件分布的概念和方法,提出了以状态持续时间的期望代替其模拟采样值的想想,显著地降低了可靠性指标统计量的方差。而由此引起的对后续状态转移过程的影响,是通过一种递推条件分布来考虑的。 本文应用该方法对一发电系统的可靠性评估问题作了试算,并与直接模拟法进行了对比。

    Abstract:

    This paper presents a new Monte-Carlo method for reliability evaluation of power systems. The estimation of reliability indices is based on the stochastic simulation of system states and state transition processes. Such a choice provides the convenience to analyze the working and repair processes in power system operation, and the possibility to estimate failure frequency and unsupplied energy in the system. In the technique of simulation, the theory of conditional expectation and conditional distribution is employed. A method of using the state duration expectation to replace the duration sample is, for the first time, proposed in the paper, which reduces the estimator variances signif icantly. Doing this, the effects on the successive state transition processes are taken into account by the recursive conditional CDFs. A set of recursive convolution formulas is presented in the paper. With the discription of its computer method, the paper also discribes the Monte-Carlo method's application to a 4-unit generation system with scheduled maintenance. The results are compared with those of the direct simulation and the comparison shows that the model and method proposed are correct and efficient.

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任震,冉立.电力系统可靠性评估的Monte-Carlo方法——系统状态及其转移过程的随机模拟[J].重庆大学学报,1988,11(4).

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