用实物期权方法评估具有战略选择的项目
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F830.9 F224.

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Valuing Project With Strategic Options with the Real Options Approch
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    摘要:

    在对项目进行评估时,常用的传统方法就是净现值法(NPV)。尽管NPV方法在许多情况有其适用性,但是,对于如何密切地将资本配置与公司长期战略紧密联系起来却不能切中问题的要害。一般来讲,过去的投资项目不仅产生未来的现金流,而且还会带来当前的机会,这是一个NPV方法很少考虑到的重要的有必要考虑的情况,笔者介绍了一种先进的评估方法-实物期权方法,它矫正了传统的NPV方法所固有的一些缺陷,它主要强调的就是在采用一个项目时,要考虑该项目在公司总体长期战略方面所起的作用,因为现实中未来的市场存在很大的不确定性,这些不确定性会给项目带来风险或机遇,从而可能改变项目的价值,这就会影响人们的决策。实物期权方法意识到金融市场信息有益于确定项目预期的现金流通讯合理的贴现率,因而能够提供更为精确的价值估计。在此基础上介绍了如何使用实物期权方法,并举例说明实物期权方法在评价具有放弃选择、延期选择、扩张选择等战略选择的项目方面所起的作用,是传统的评估方法以直接的现金流预测所不能达到的。

    Abstract:

    The traditional method used often is net present value method(NPV)for valuing project. NPV is useful in many cases, but it doesn't get to the heart of how intimately linked capital allocation is to long term corporate strategy. In general,past investment projects generate future as well as current opportunities-an important consideration that NPV rarely takes into account. This paper presents an advanced valuation techniques-the real options approach that remedies some of the deficiencies inherent in traditional NPV. The main emphasis will be on techniques that emphasize the role that the adoption of projects plays in the overall long term strategy of a corporation. Because in reality the future markets have the great uncertainty that produces risky or opportunity with project so as to change the value of project. This will have an effect on decision making. The real options approach recognize that financial market information can be useful for determining the expected cash flows of a project as well as the appropriate discount rate and can thus provide more accurate estimates of value. Base on this, how to use the real options approach is introduced. The role that the real options approach played in valuing the project with abandonment or defer or extend etc. strategic options is described with examples.

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刘星 陈刚.用实物期权方法评估具有战略选择的项目[J].重庆大学学报,2002,25(11):50-54.

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  • 最后修改日期:2002-04-06
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