analysis and application of demand forecasting model with multielement variable parameters
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摘要:
针对现有区域物流需求预测目标单一、预测数据复杂的问题，提出了多元可变参数的物流需求预测模型。在分析区域物流需求预测影响因素，并建立区域物流需求预测指标体系的基础上，运用粗糙集理论对预测指标进行预处理，建立多输入多输出小波网络（multiinput and multioutput wavelet network，MMWNN）多元预测模型，采用迭代梯度下降法和逐步检验法确定预测网络中的可变参数。利用粗糙集约简后的评价指标来实现对多元区域物流需求的预测，实例仿真结果表明该模型具有较高的预测精度和有效度。
Abstract:
A forecasting model for logistics demand was presented to overcome the limitations of single goal forecasts of logistics demand and forecast data complexity. Based on the forecasting evaluation index and pretreatment of rough set theory, a multiinput and multioutput wavelet network (MMWNN) model for forecasting multielement regional logistics demand was studied. The network configuration was confirmed using the stepwise checkout and iterative gradient descent methods. After rough set reduction, the evaluation index was used to forecast the multielement regional logistics demand. The results of the numerical example indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.