铁路工程铺轨基地碳排放测算及影响因素研究
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作者:
作者单位:

1.兰州交通大学 土木工程学院, 兰州 730070;2.中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司 电子计算技术研究所, 北京 100081

作者简介:

鲍学英(1974—),女,教授,博士生导师,博士,主要从事绿色铁路及工程管理方向的研究,(E-mail)813257032@qq.com。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

U215

基金项目:

中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划实验室基础研究项目资金资助(L2023Z001)。


Research on carbon emission calculation and influencing factors of railway track-laying bases
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, P. R. China;2.Institute of Computing Technologies, China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited, Beijing 100081, P. R. China

Fund Project:

Supported by the Basic Research of Science and Technology Research and Development Program Laboratory of China National Railway Group Corporation Limited (L2023Z001).

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    摘要:

    铺轨基地作为铁路工程重要的大型临时工程,其碳排放是铁路工程物化阶段不容忽视的碳排放来源。通过碳排放因子法建立铺轨基地全生命周期碳排放测算模型;然后提取铺轨基地碳排放特征作为影响因素,并通过特征重要度排序识别关键影响因素;最后通过可解释机器学习模型将关键影响因素对碳排放贡献可视化,剖析关键影响因素对碳排放的影响机理。结果表明:铺轨基地全生命周期碳排放总量为4 825.134~15 122.059 t;铺轨基地建材生产阶段碳排放占比最高(72%~86%);根据铺轨基地影响因素重要度排序结果,识别出5个关键影响因素分别为基地面积、地基处理方式、道路硬化方式、机械走行轨道长度和股道长度;通过SHAP(Shapley additive explanations)概括图和依赖性散点图分析关键影响因素对碳排放产生的影响。研究结论可以为铁路工程铺轨基地碳减排相关研究提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    As a major temporary facility in railway construction, the carbon emissions generated by track-laying bases constitute a significant source of embodied carbon during the materialization stage. In this study, a carbon emission measurement model for the life cycle of railway track-laying bases is established using the carbon emission factor method. The characteristic emission contributors are then extracted as potential influencing factors, and key factors are identified by feature-importance ranking. Furthermore, an interpretable machine learning model is used to visualize the contribution of these key factors and to analyze their impact mechanisms on carbon emissions. The results show that the total life cycle carbon emissions of a track-laying base range from 4 825.134 t to 15 122.059 t. Carbon emissions from building materials in the production stage account for the largest share (72% to 86%). According to the importance ranking, the five key influencing factors are base area, foundation treatment method, road hardening method, mechanical track length, and stock track length. The influence of these key factors on carbon emissions are further analyzed by SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) summary plots and dependency scatter plots. The findings provide a theoretical basis for promoting carbon reduction strategies in the construction and operation of railway track-laying bases.

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引用本文

鲍学英,任海涛,刘北胜,李慧,李子龙.铁路工程铺轨基地碳排放测算及影响因素研究[J].重庆大学学报,2026,49(4):50-62.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-21
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