基于xLSTM的大型水资源配置工程多区域电力消耗预测算法
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作者单位:

1.重庆市西部水资源开发有限公司,重庆 400039;2.重庆大学 自动化学院,重庆 400030

作者简介:

王兵(1976—),男,高级工程师,主要从事水利水电工程方向研究,(E-mail)461807612@qq .com。

通讯作者:

王楷(1981—),男,副教授,(E-mail)kaiwang@cqu.edu.cn。

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基金项目:

重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0127)。


Multi-regional power consumption forecasting in large-scale construction projects based on xLSTM
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Chongqing Western Water Resources Development Co., Ltd., Chongqing 400039, P. R. China;2.College of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, P. R. China

Fund Project:

Supported by Chongqing Key Project of Technological Innovation and Application Development (CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0127).

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    摘要:

    随着水资源配置工程的规模不断扩大,准确预测电力消耗对能源节约、成本控制和施工效率至关重要。传统电力消耗预测方法,如LSTM(long short term memory)和Transformer,在处理复杂时序数据时,难以同时捕捉短期和长期依赖。为应对这一挑战,本文提出基于扩展长短期记忆网络xLSTM(extended long short term memory)对多区域电力消耗进行预测。xLSTM结合了sLSTM(scalar long short term memory)的短期依赖建模优势与mLSTM(matrix long short term memory)的长期依赖建模能力,能够有效处理多个区域间电力消耗数据,考虑不同区域的时序关联性。实验结果表明,xLSTM在多区域电力消耗预测中表现优异,均方误差(mean square error,MSE)为0.003 0,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)为0.035,优于其他模型。该模型为电力消耗的精准预测提供了有效的技术支持,能够为大型水资源配置工程中的精准决策和智能调度管理提供有力保障。

    Abstract:

    With the continuous expansion of water resource allocation projects, accurate electricity consumption forecasting is crucial for energy conservation, cost control, and construction efficiency. Traditional forecasting methods, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Transformers, often struggle to capture both short-term and long-term dependencies in complex time-series data. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an xLSTM (extended long Short-term memory) model for multi-regional power consumption forecasting. The xLSTM model combines the short-term dependency modeling capability of sLSTM with the long-term dependency learning capacity of mLSTM, enabling effective analysis of power consumption data across multiple regions while considering temporal correlations among regions. Experimental results show that xLSTM achieve superior predictive performance, with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.0030 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.035, outperforming competing models. The proposed model provides effective technical support for precise electricity demand forecasting and offers practical value for decision-making and intelligent scheduling management in large-scale water resource allocation projects.

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王兵,杨青山,蒋有高,徐献韬,王楷.基于xLSTM的大型水资源配置工程多区域电力消耗预测算法[J].重庆大学学报,2026,49(6):103-116.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-28
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