农业基础地位的动态效应分析
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重庆市教委人文社科重点课题“城乡统筹中农业基础地位及其制度支持研究”(08jwsk002)


On the Dynamic Effect of Agriculture as the Foundation
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    摘要:

    运用向量自回归模型(VAR模型),对包括农业自身在内的整个国民经济针对农业冲击的响应函数分析,发现农业对整个国民经济有显著的促进作用和长期的持续效应,充分表明农业对整个国民经济具有重要支持作用,始终处于国民经济的基础地位。在国民经济三大产业对农业的效应中,第三产业对农业的贡献率最低,且从第六年后逐年下降;第二产业对农业的贡献率则呈现逐年持续增长的态势。因此,加强农业基础地位应该大力发展第二产业,充分发挥第二产业对农业的持续促进效应。不过,农业对其自身的正效应更值得关注。农业对自身的贡献率在第一年达到峰值后

    Abstract:

    Through the research of the impact of the response function of the whole national economy findings, using the vector regression model (VAR model), the author analyzes that agriculture has significant role in promoting the whole national economy and has longterm continuous effect, fully shows agriculture plays an important role in support of national economy, the basic position In the three industries of national economy, the contribution of the third industry for agricultural is minimum, and the rate declines from the sixth year The contribution of the second industry for agriculture is growing year by year Therefore to strengthen agriculture, an economy should vigorously develop secondary industry, give full play to the second industry continued to promote agriculture However, for its own positive effect more attention, agriculture in the first year of their contribution to the peak is slow down, but has more contribution than the second industry greatly in 50 years Therefore, strengthening the construction of agriculture itself is to strengthen the position of agriculture as the foundation of the root

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张国林.农业基础地位的动态效应分析[J].重庆大学学报社会科学版,2009,15(5):23-27.

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  • 收稿日期:2009-06-17
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